{"locations":[{"code":"LUX","name":"Luxembourg","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LUX/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 1.96 in 1950 → 1.40 in 2023 (−29%). Peak: 2.40 in 1965; the latest value is 42% lower. Threshold: below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1965 and 1974: +0.03 → −0.09 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.96,"last":1.396,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":2.397},"thresholds":[{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0266,"slope_after":-0.0915},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.0915,"slope_after":-0.00135}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 4.38k in 1950 → 6.95k in 2023 (+59%). Low: 3.78k in 1973; +84% since then. The trend broke around 1965 and 1973: +0.04k → −0.18k → +0.05k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.381,"last":6.946,"trough":{"year":1973,"value":3.778},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0446,"slope_after":-0.182},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.182,"slope_after":0.0542}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 99.1% in 2025 (+99 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2003, above 90% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 17.4% → 65.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":99.129,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":17.4,"end":65.88}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 69.5% in 1960 → 94.9% in 2025 (+25 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1972. The trend broke around 1980 and 1993: +0.57 → +0.06 → +0.45 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":69.5091,"last":94.8842,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1972,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.573,"slope_after":0.0608},{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.0608,"slope_after":0.451}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 81,455 PPP dollars in 1990 → 127,421 PPP dollars in 2025 (+56%). The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: +1,878 → +3,745 → −107 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":81455.0312,"last":127420.6016,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":1880,"slope_after":3750},{"year":2006,"slope_before":3750,"slope_after":-107}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 2.35 → 1.50. Over the same years: births 5.16k → 3.84k; urban share 72.1% → 78.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.345,"end":1.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":5.163,"end":3.838},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":72.149,"end":78.3243},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.55 → 1.40; births 6k → 6.95k; internet 93.8% → 99.3%; urban share 89.9% → 94.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 129,947 PPP dollars → 130,049 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.55,"end":1.396,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.996,"end":6.946},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":93.7765,"end":99.3479},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":89.9414,"end":94.8015},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":129947.3362,"end":130048.9223}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.14); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.143,"r_changes":0.919,"effective_pairs_changes":53,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.808,"r_changes":-0.117,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.38).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.762,"r_changes":-0.384,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.65); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.647,"r_changes":0.01,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.78,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-21.98},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-22.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-21.1},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-21.1},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.719,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-19.21},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.744,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-20.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.739,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-20.14},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.708,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-18.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.611,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-13.8},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.594,"actual":1.3887,"gap_pct":-12.88},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.401,"actual":1.396,"gap_pct":-0.36}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-20.14,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.48 (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.54 (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.04.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.396},"values":{"2050":1.482,"2100":1.538},"low_2100":1.038}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −2.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.996,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":22.12},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.513,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-6.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.132,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-0.5},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.163,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-1},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.234,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-2.13},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.244,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-2.29},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.648,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-8.22},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.524,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-6.48},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.785,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-10.08},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.699,"actual":6.1013,"gap_pct":-8.92},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.724,"actual":6.946,"gap_pct":3.3}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-2.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (6.95k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.946,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (6.95k) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.946,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 6.9k (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.04k (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.51k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.946},"values":{"2050":6.895,"2100":6.044},"low_2100":2.51}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LUX&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}