{"locations":[{"code":"LSO","name":"Lesotho","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LSO/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.70 in 1950 → 2.69 in 2023 (−53%). The trend broke around 1982 and 1998: 0 → −0.12 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.701,"last":2.694,"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.000035,"slope_after":-0.123},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.123,"slope_after":-0.0404}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 25.3k in 1950 → 55.7k in 2023 (+121%). Peak: 65.3k in 1987; the latest value is 15% lower. The trend broke around 1969 and 1984: +0.81k → +1.46k → −0.12k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":25.26,"last":55.73,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":65.3},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.808,"slope_after":1.46},{"year":1984,"slope_before":1.46,"slope_after":-0.125}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 51.8% in 2024 (+52 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2012, above 50% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 10% → 39%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":51.7966,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":10,"end":39}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 3.7% in 1960 → 44.7% in 2025 (+41 pp). The trend broke around 1991 and 2006: +0.26 → +0.63 → +1.2 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":3.6584,"last":44.6696,"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":0.261,"slope_after":0.626},{"year":2006,"slope_before":0.626,"slope_after":1.17}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,422 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,721 PPP dollars in 2025 (+91%). Peak: 3,057 PPP dollars in 2016; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 2014: direction reversed (+79 → −40 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1422.1506,"last":2720.9574,"peak":{"year":2016,"value":3057.2609},"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":78.5,"slope_after":-40.4}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1989–1999: 4.96 → 3.67. Over the same years: births 64.4k → 57k; internet 0% → 0.1%; urban share 12.3% → 18.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,422 PPP dollars → 1,861 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":4.964,"end":3.67,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":64.4,"end":57.01},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":0,"end":0.0538},{"id":"urban_population","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":12.2855,"end":18.7719},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":1422.1506,"end":1860.7005}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.28 → 2.69; births 61.7k → 55.7k; internet 15% → 49%; urban share 31.2% → 42.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,914 PPP dollars → 2,592 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.283,"end":2.694,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":61.67,"end":55.73},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":15,"end":48.9859},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31.2407,"end":42.6782},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2914.3752,"end":2592.457}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.69). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.63,"r_changes":0.695,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.788,"r_changes":0.154,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.921,"r_changes":0.239,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.861,"r_changes":0.423,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +8.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.5,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":-12.81},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.44,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":-11.29},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.761,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":10.52},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.741,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":11.33},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.804,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":8.83},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.804,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":8.83},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.787,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":9.49},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.82,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":8.21},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.012,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":1.31},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.013,"actual":3.0515,"gap_pct":1.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.943,"actual":2.694,"gap_pct":-8.46}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":8.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.69, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.694,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.69, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.694,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.15 (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.80 (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.30.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.694},"values":{"2050":2.145,"2100":1.801},"low_2100":1.301}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":87.301,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":-31.26},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":60.084,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":-0.11},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.117,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":30.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.708,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":34.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.735,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":7.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.668,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":4.07},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":59.887,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":0.21},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.025,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":5.24},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":60.736,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":-1.19},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.43,"actual":60.015,"gap_pct":-2.3},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":59.355,"actual":55.73,"gap_pct":-6.11}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (55.7k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":55.73,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (55.7k) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":55.73,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 51.8k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 38k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 14.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":55.73},"values":{"2050":51.77,"2100":38.01},"low_2100":14.84}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LSO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}