{"locations":[{"code":"LKA","name":"Sri Lanka","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LKA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.46 in 1950 → 1.97 in 2023 (−64%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2015. The trend broke around 1961 and 1991: −0.01 → −0.1 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.462,"last":1.974,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":-0.0128,"slope_after":-0.0965},{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0965,"slope_after":-0.0128}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 281k in 1950 → 324k in 2023 (+15%). Peak: 427k in 1979; the latest value is 24% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 1986: +4.16k → −12.7k → +0.21k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":280.7,"last":324.1,"peak":{"year":1979,"value":426.9},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":4.16,"slope_after":-12.7},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-12.7,"slope_after":0.205}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 54.6% in 2024 (+55 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2013, above 50% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 25.1% → 48.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":54.59,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2013,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":25.0755,"end":48.3}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.6% in 1960 → 20.5% in 2025 (+2.9 pp). Low: 14.6% in 2001; +5.9 pp since then. The trend broke around 1974 and 2000: +0.41 → −0.35 → +0.26 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.5534,"last":20.4501,"trough":{"year":2001,"value":14.574},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.407,"slope_after":-0.349},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.349,"slope_after":0.262}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,562 PPP dollars in 1990 → 14,583 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.2). The trend broke around 2005 and 2017: +169 → +615 → −106 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4561.5791,"last":14582.7604,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":169,"slope_after":615},{"year":2017,"slope_before":615,"slope_after":-106}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1978–1988: 3.81 → 2.57. Over the same years: births 415k → 327k; urban share 21.9% → 19%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1978,"to":1988,"start":3.81,"end":2.565,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1978,"to":1988,"start":415.4,"end":327},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1978,"to":1988,"start":21.8908,"end":19.0375},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.18 → 1.97; births 364k → 324k; internet 10% → 51.2%; urban share 18.4% → 20.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,250 PPP dollars → 13,065 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.178,"end":1.974,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":363.7,"end":324.1},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10.0444,"end":51.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18.4323,"end":20.1455},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12249.7223,"end":13065.0698}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.08); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.88). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.083,"r_changes":0.878,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.812,"r_changes":-0.141,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.54); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.543,"r_changes":0.076,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.861,"r_changes":-0.008,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +0.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":2.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":7.48},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":10.38},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":10.38},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":10.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.128,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":-4.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.128,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":-4.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.249,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":-9.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.026,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":0.79},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.029,"actual":2.0421,"gap_pct":0.65},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.959,"actual":1.974,"gap_pct":0.77}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":0.79,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (1.97, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.974,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.97, 2023) only around 2035: reality is 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.974,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"years":12,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.77 (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.70 (−14% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.20.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.974},"values":{"2050":1.768,"2100":1.695},"low_2100":1.195}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +8.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":328.17,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":3.21},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":305.487,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":10.88},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":283.488,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":19.48},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":309.87,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":9.31},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":281.276,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":20.42},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":325.167,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":4.17},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":332.218,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":1.96},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":355.338,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":-4.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":311.845,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":8.62},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":311.219,"actual":338.72,"gap_pct":8.84},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":297.987,"actual":324.1,"gap_pct":8.76}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":8.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (324k) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":324.1,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (324k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":324.1,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 270k (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 179k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 60.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":324.1},"values":{"2050":269.5,"2100":178.7},"low_2100":60.42}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LKA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}