{"locations":[{"code":"LIE","name":"Liechtenstein","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LIE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.71 in 1950 → 1.54 in 2023 (−43%). Peak: 2.96 in 1965; the latest value is 48% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1970. The trend broke around 1963 and 1981: +0.01 → −0.07 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.712,"last":1.537,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":2.963},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1970,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.00622,"slope_after":-0.0712},{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.0712,"slope_after":-0.000166}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.29k in 1950 → 0.37k in 2023 (+26%). Peak: 0.43k in 1999; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1998: +0.01k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.294,"last":0.371,"peak":{"year":1999,"value":0.428},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0062,"slope_after":0.000545},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.000545,"slope_after":-0.00177}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98.3% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2000–2005: 36.5% → 63.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":98.2642,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2000,"to":2005,"start":36.5152,"end":63.3714}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 20.4% in 1960 → 14.6% in 2025 (−5.8 pp). The trend broke around 1993 and 2003: −0.1 → −0.23 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":20.4397,"last":14.6299,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0984,"slope_after":-0.227},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.227,"slope_after":0.00663}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 2.96 → 1.90. Over the same years: births 0.42k → 0.37k; urban share 19.6% → 18.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":2.963,"end":1.897,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":0.416,"end":0.374},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":19.5572,"end":18.3219}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.46 → 1.54; births 0.34k → 0.37k; internet 93.8% → 98.1%; urban share 14.4% → 14.7%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.462,"end":1.537,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.337,"end":0.371},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":93.8,"end":98.1323},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14.4202,"end":14.6784}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.41); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.412,"r_changes":0.924,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.10); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":0.098,"r_changes":-0.007,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.779,"r_changes":0.008,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.492,"actual":1.537,"gap_pct":3.02}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":3.02,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.56 (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.59 (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.09.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.537},"values":{"2050":1.559,"2100":1.589},"low_2100":1.089}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +3.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.36,"actual":0.371,"gap_pct":3.06}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":3.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.37k (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.36k (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.371},"values":{"2050":0.374,"2100":0.361},"low_2100":0.163}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LIE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}