{"locations":[{"code":"LCA","name":"Saint Lucia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LCA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.42 in 1950 → 1.38 in 2023 (−79%). Peak: 6.84 in 1961; the latest value is 80% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2002, below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1963 and 2002: +0.04 → −0.13 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.42,"last":1.379,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":6.835},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2002,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.0436,"slope_after":-0.128},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.128,"slope_after":-0.0266}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 4.31k in 1950 → 2.02k in 2023 (−53%). The trend broke around 1993 and 2005: −0.01k → −0.12k → −0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.306,"last":2.019,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.00663,"slope_after":-0.122},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.122,"slope_after":-0.0289}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 68.2% in 2024 (+68 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 32.5% → 57.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":68.205,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":32.5,"end":57.2633}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 20.3% in 1960 → 29.1% in 2025 (+8.8 pp). Low: 18.5% in 2011; +11 pp since then. The trend broke around 1995 and 2012: +0.33 → −0.78 → +0.98 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":20.276,"last":29.0966,"trough":{"year":2011,"value":18.4743},"breaks":[{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.325,"slope_after":-0.78},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.78,"slope_after":0.98}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,057 PPP dollars in 1990 → 24,503 PPP dollars in 2025 (+44%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17056.7185,"last":24502.9629}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 6.10 → 4.41. Over the same years: births 3.97k → 4.08k; urban share 22.1% → 26.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":6.101,"end":4.412,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":3.969,"end":4.076},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":22.093,"end":26.3705},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.50 → 1.38; births 2.17k → 2.02k; internet 49.4% → 67.4%; urban share 18.9% → 29.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 20,827 PPP dollars → 23,636 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.5,"end":1.379,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.166,"end":2.019},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":49.3872,"end":67.4439},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18.9258,"end":29.0976},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20827.2886,"end":23636.0266}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.86); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.66). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.858,"r_changes":0.661,"effective_pairs_changes":58,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.885,"r_changes":0.076,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.17); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.167,"r_changes":0.023,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.779,"r_changes":-0.095,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 10 revisions (2000–2022) and above in none; median gap −21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-31.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.985,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-27.35},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.012,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-28.32},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.013,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-28.36},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-22.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.789,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-19.39},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.821,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-20.8},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.822,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-20.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.444,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-0.12},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.379,"actual":1.379,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-21.45,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (1.38, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.379,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.42 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.50 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.00.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.379},"values":{"2050":1.419,"2100":1.504},"low_2100":1.004}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 10 revisions (2000–2022) and above in 1; median gap −24%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.912,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-27.02},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.638,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-19.44},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.921,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-27.25},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.018,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-29.59},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.944,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-27.82},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.852,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-25.49},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.722,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-21.93},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.721,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-21.9},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.138,"actual":2.1251,"gap_pct":-0.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.009,"actual":2.019,"gap_pct":0.5}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-23.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (2.02k, 2023) only around 2041: reality is 18 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.019,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2041,"years":18,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (2.02k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.019,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.38k (−32% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.8k (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.23k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.019},"values":{"2050":1.382,"2100":0.798},"low_2100":0.225}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LCA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}