{"locations":[{"code":"LBR","name":"Liberia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LBR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.00 in 1950 → 3.95 in 2023 (−34%). Peak: 6.92 in 1979; the latest value is 43% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 2000: +0.03 → −0.05 → −0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.001,"last":3.95,"peak":{"year":1979,"value":6.919},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.0276,"slope_after":-0.0505},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.0505,"slope_after":-0.0866}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 40.3k in 1950 → 170k in 2023 (×4.2). The trend broke around 1987 and 1993: +1.93k → −0.88k → +2.6k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":40.28,"last":170.1,"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":1.93,"slope_after":-0.881},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.881,"slope_after":2.6}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 32.2% in 2024 (+32 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 5.4% → 19.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":32.2336,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":5.41,"end":19.8958}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 18.6% in 1960 → 56.1% in 2025 (+37 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2014. The trend broke around 1993 and 1999: +0.98 → −1.1 → +0.52 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":18.5915,"last":56.082,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.975,"slope_after":-1.07},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-1.07,"slope_after":0.522}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,866 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,693 PPP dollars in 2025 (−9%). Low: 535 PPP dollars in 1995; ×3.2 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: −157 → +159 → −1.6 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1866.4055,"last":1692.9259,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":534.8097},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-157,"slope_after":159},{"year":2002,"slope_before":159,"slope_after":-1.61}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2006–2016: 5.53 → 4.46. Over the same years: births 143k → 161k; internet 0.5% → 15.7%; urban share 46.2% → 51.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,365 PPP dollars → 1,653 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":5.53,"end":4.461,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":142.6,"end":161.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":0.53,"end":15.7},{"id":"urban_population","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":46.2323,"end":51.2687},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":1364.6035,"end":1653.3105}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.75 → 3.95; births 162k → 170k; internet 3.2% → 31.2%; urban share 49.7% → 55%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,775 PPP dollars → 1,617 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.749,"end":3.95,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":162,"end":170.1},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.2,"end":31.2241},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":49.6978,"end":54.9979},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1774.5206,"end":1616.9237}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.791,"r_changes":0.112,"effective_pairs_changes":67,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.869,"r_changes":-0.015,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.721,"r_changes":-0.046,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.45); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.451,"r_changes":-0.019,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −2.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.326,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":0.78},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.63,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-22.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.677,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-23.2},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.104,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-28.58},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.104,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-28.58},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.178,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":4.35},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.674,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-6.72},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.466,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-2.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.473,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-2.53},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.481,"actual":4.3597,"gap_pct":-2.71},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.95,"actual":3.95,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-2.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.95) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.95,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.95, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.95,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.62 (−34% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.97 (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.47.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.95},"values":{"2050":2.622,"2100":1.974},"low_2100":1.474}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −4.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":180.803,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-10.18},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":234.973,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-30.89},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":217.297,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-25.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":212.701,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-23.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":244.716,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-33.64},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":164.628,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-1.35},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":170.297,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":-4.64},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":160.188,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":1.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":161.431,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":0.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":162.145,"actual":162.4,"gap_pct":0.16},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":166.979,"actual":170.1,"gap_pct":1.87}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-4.64,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (170k) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":170.1,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (170k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":170.1,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 194k (+14% vs 2023), 2100 — 173k (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 81k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":170.1},"values":{"2050":193.5,"2100":173.1},"low_2100":80.99}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LBR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}