{"locations":[{"code":"LBN","name":"Lebanon","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LBN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.81 in 1950 → 2.24 in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1963 and 1996: 0 → −0.1 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.805,"last":2.24,"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.00397,"slope_after":-0.1},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.1,"slope_after":-0.012}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 55.5k in 1950 → 93.2k in 2023 (+68%). Peak: 127k in 2015; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1996: +1.12k → −1.94k → +0.67k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":55.54,"last":93.2,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":126.6},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":1.12,"slope_after":-1.94},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-1.94,"slope_after":0.668}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 80.6% in 2024 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 22.5% → 70.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":80.634,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":22.53,"end":70.5}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 41.7% in 1960 → 91% in 2025 (+49 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1965, above 75% since 1981. The trend broke around 1988: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.2 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":41.6676,"last":90.9602,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1965,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1981,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":1.13,"slope_after":0.199}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,346 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,469 PPP dollars in 2024 (+96%). Peak: 17,391 PPP dollars in 2010; the latest value is 40% lower. The trend broke around 2011 and 2018: +415 → −141 → −927 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":5345.5121,"last":10469.2211,"peak":{"year":2010,"value":17390.7584},"breaks":[{"year":2011,"slope_before":415,"slope_after":-141},{"year":2018,"slope_before":-141,"slope_after":-927}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 5.57 → 4.28. Over the same years: births 77.6k → 87.8k; urban share 54.4% → 70.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.569,"end":4.279,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":77.64,"end":87.83},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":54.3915,"end":70.1817},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.36 → 2.24; births 104k → 93.2k; internet 70.5% → 81.7%; urban share 88.2% → 90.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 16,396 PPP dollars → 11,330 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.361,"end":2.24,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":103.5,"end":93.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":70.5,"end":81.7059},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":88.2165,"end":90.4524},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16396.4969,"end":11330.2687}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.804,"r_changes":0.283,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.66). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.536,"r_changes":0.664,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.98,"r_changes":-0.021,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.792,"r_changes":0.034,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +24%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.099,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":12.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":24.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.921,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":22.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.032,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":15.95},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.032,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":15.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":27.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.684,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":39.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.478,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":59.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.709,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":37.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.704,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":38.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.058,"actual":2.24,"gap_pct":8.84}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":24.01,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.90 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.75 (−22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.25.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.24},"values":{"2050":1.904,"2100":1.747},"low_2100":1.247}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +63%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":70.394,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":58.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":66.401,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":68.14},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":66.135,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":68.81},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.72,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":69.88},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":73.055,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":52.82},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":68.367,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":63.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.78,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":80.71},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":67.554,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":65.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":90.683,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":23.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":91.485,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":22.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":76.066,"actual":93.2,"gap_pct":22.53}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":63.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (93.2k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":93.2,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 86.6k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 66.1k (−29% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 25.3k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":93.2},"values":{"2050":86.55,"2100":66.05},"low_2100":25.26}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LBN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}