{"locations":[{"code":"LAO","name":"Laos","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/LAO/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.25 in 1950 → 2.42 in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1989 and 2008: 0 → −0.16 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.248,"last":2.421,"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.000531,"slope_after":-0.162},{"year":2008,"slope_before":-0.162,"slope_after":-0.057}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 81.2k in 1950 → 163k in 2023 (+101%). Peak: 193k in 1993; the latest value is 16% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 1992: +1.8k → +3.3k → −0.82k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":81.15,"last":163,"peak":{"year":1993,"value":193.2},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":1.8,"slope_after":3.3},{"year":1992,"slope_before":3.3,"slope_after":-0.82}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 65.6% in 2024 (+66 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2012, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 21.9% → 62%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":65.5927,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":21.87,"end":62}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 7.8% in 1960 → 40.3% in 2025 (+32 pp). The trend broke around 1995 and 2004: +0.28 → +1.1 → +0.63 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":7.8481,"last":40.313,"breaks":[{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.276,"slope_after":1.11},{"year":2004,"slope_before":1.11,"slope_after":0.629}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,006 PPP dollars in 1990 → 8,873 PPP dollars in 2025 (×4.4). The trend broke around 2006 and 2018: +113 → +340 → +145 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2005.5005,"last":8872.694,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":113,"slope_after":340},{"year":2018,"slope_before":340,"slope_after":145}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1993–2003: 5.80 → 4.02. Over the same years: births 193k → 175k; internet 0.3% (2003); urban share 16.3% → 25.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,152 PPP dollars → 3,283 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":5.798,"end":4.024,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":193.2,"end":174.7},{"id":"internet_users","year":2003,"value":0.3339},{"id":"urban_population","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":16.3205,"end":25.5946},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":2152.2766,"end":3282.9854}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.87 → 2.42; births 169k → 163k; internet 12.5% → 64.4%; urban share 32.2% → 38.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,974 PPP dollars → 8,372 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.872,"end":2.421,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":169.4,"end":163},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12.5,"end":64.398},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":32.2264,"end":38.807},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5974.4737,"end":8372.1559}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.56). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.565,"r_changes":0.557,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.70); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.697,"r_changes":0.022,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.60). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.984,"r_changes":-0.598,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.91,"r_changes":0.019,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.75,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-28.95},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.327,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-19.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.2,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-16.73},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.296,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-19.16},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.595,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":2.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.907,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-8.34},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.244,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":18.74},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.722,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-2.11},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.771,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":-3.84},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.623,"actual":2.6645,"gap_pct":1.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.408,"actual":2.421,"gap_pct":0.54}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.84,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.42, 2023) only around 2032: reality is 9 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.421,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2032,"years":9,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (2.42) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.421,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.89 (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.71 (−29% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.21.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.421},"values":{"2050":1.885,"2100":1.712},"low_2100":1.212}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −6.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":250.903,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-32.82},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":212.264,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-20.59},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":204.736,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-17.67},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":210.233,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-19.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":160.863,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":4.78},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":183.317,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-8.05},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":137.927,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":22.21},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":180.637,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-6.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":179.024,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":-5.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":160.197,"actual":168.56,"gap_pct":5.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":160.515,"actual":163,"gap_pct":1.55}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-6.69,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (163k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":163,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection expected today's level (163k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":163,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 136k (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 86.7k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 28.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":163},"values":{"2050":135.5,"2100":86.72},"low_2100":28.36}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=LAO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}