{"locations":[{"code":"KWT","name":"Kuwait","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KWT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.12 in 1950 → 1.53 in 2023 (−79%). Peak: 7.34 in 1966; the latest value is 79% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2019. The trend broke around 1968 and 1989: +0.01 → −0.18 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.115,"last":1.525,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":7.34},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.0147,"slope_after":-0.182},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.182,"slope_after":-0.0563}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 6.83k in 1950 → 49.3k in 2023 (×7.2). Peak: 61.3k in 2014; the latest value is 19% lower. The trend broke around 1985 and 1991: +1.72k → −3.2k → +0.53k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.827,"last":49.34,"peak":{"year":2014,"value":61.26},"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":1.72,"slope_after":-3.2},{"year":1991,"slope_before":-3.2,"slope_after":0.535}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 100% in 2025 (+100 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2009, above 90% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2006–2011: 28.8% → 65.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":100,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2006,"to":2011,"start":28.7912,"end":65.7691}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 75.4% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+25 pp). The trend broke around 1970 and 1981: +0.49 → +1.5 → +0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":75.4014,"last":100,"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.49,"slope_after":1.48},{"year":1981,"slope_before":1.48,"slope_after":0.0786}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 38,933 PPP dollars in 1990 → 48,254 PPP dollars in 2025 (+24%). Peak: 79,521 PPP dollars in 2006; the latest value is 39% lower. The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: +4,095 → +1,278 → −1,577 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":38932.9435,"last":48253.9639,"peak":{"year":2006,"value":79521.3484},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":4100,"slope_after":1280},{"year":2006,"slope_before":1280,"slope_after":-1580}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1976–1986: 5.90 → 4.00. Over the same years: births 46.4k → 56.6k; urban share 90.7% → 97.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":5.896,"end":4.003,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":46.38,"end":56.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":90.6507,"end":97.9303},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.97 → 1.53; births 59k → 49.3k; internet 75.5% → 99.7%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 62,459 PPP dollars → 47,790 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.968,"end":1.525,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":58.99,"end":49.34},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":75.46,"end":99.7473},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":62458.8089,"end":47790.1933}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.782,"r_changes":0.054,"effective_pairs_changes":73,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.929,"r_changes":0.132,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.937,"r_changes":-0.375,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.09); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.089,"r_changes":0.018,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":-0.09},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":-0.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.225,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":-5.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.073,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":1.21},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.012,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":4.28},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.012,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":4.28},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.195,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":-4.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.509,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":-16.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.042,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":2.75},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.967,"actual":2.0981,"gap_pct":6.66},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.067,"actual":1.525,"gap_pct":-26.22}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.53, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.525,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection did not expect today's level (1.53, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.525,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.58 (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.525},"values":{"2050":1.505,"2100":1.575},"low_2100":1.075}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +9.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.791,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":20.62},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":49.403,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":14.24},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.222,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":12.38},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":52.646,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":7.2},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.42,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":9.76},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.42,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":9.76},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.478,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":9.63},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":72.807,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":-22.48},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":75.566,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":-25.31},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.17,"actual":56.437,"gap_pct":-13.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":39.901,"actual":49.34,"gap_pct":23.66}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":9.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (49.3k, 2023) only around 2037: reality is 14 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":49.34,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2037,"years":14,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection did not expect today's level (49.3k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":49.34,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 64.1k (+30% vs 2023), 2100 — 105k (+113% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 53.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":49.34},"values":{"2050":64.05,"2100":105.3},"low_2100":53.81}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KWT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}