{"locations":[{"code":"KOR","name":"South Korea","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KOR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.06 in 1950 → 0.80 in 2025 (−87%). Low: 0.72 in 2023; +11% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1984, below 1.5 since 1998, below 1.0 since 2018. The trend broke around 1958 and 1985: +0.01 → −0.16 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.063,"last":0.8,"trough":{"year":2023,"value":0.72},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1984,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1998,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":0.0139,"slope_after":-0.164},{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.164,"slope_after":-0.0245}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 785k in 1950 → 254k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 1.1M in 1960; the latest value is 77% lower. The trend broke around 1959: direction reversed (+34.4k → −12.8k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":784.8,"last":254.341,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":1099},"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":34.4,"slope_after":-12.8}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 97.9% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2016. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 6.8% → 65.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0233,"last":97.8956,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":6.78,"end":65.5}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 27.7% in 1960 → 81.2% in 2025 (+53 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1977, above 75% since 1991. The trend broke around 1993: change slowed down (+1.6 → +0.29 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":27.6858,"last":81.174,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1977,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1991,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":1.6,"slope_after":0.292}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 14,378 PPP dollars in 1990 → 55,697 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.9).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":14377.8839,"last":55697.0848}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 4.51 → 2.70. Over the same years: births 958k → 773k; urban share 36.5% → 53.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":4.51,"end":2.7,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":958.4,"end":772.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":36.5333,"end":53.0956},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.20 → 0.80; births 425k → 254k; internet 89.9% → 97.9%; urban share 81.6% → 81.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 44,849 PPP dollars → 55,697 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.202,"end":0.8,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":424.8,"end":254.341},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":89.8963,"end":97.8956},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":81.6395,"end":81.174},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":44849.1068,"end":55697.0848}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.86); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.89). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.86,"r_changes":0.893,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.91,"r_changes":-0.172,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.979,"r_changes":0.203,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.943,"r_changes":0.15,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −45%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-59.59},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.869,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-58.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.522,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-49.55},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.415,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-45.74},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.285,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-40.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.335,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-42.49},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.56,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-50.78},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-47.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.393,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-44.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.399,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-45.12},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.075,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-28.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":0.905,"actual":0.8,"gap_pct":-11.6}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-45.43,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.03 (+28% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.30 (+62% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.80.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.8},"values":{"2050":1.026,"2100":1.296},"low_2100":0.796}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −45%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":593.421,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-57.78},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":567.501,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-55.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":468.531,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-46.52},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":423.213,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-40.8},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":391.307,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-35.97},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":416.564,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-39.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":479.96,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-47.8},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":473.362,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-47.07},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":457.219,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-45.2},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":457.575,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-45.24},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":347.262,"actual":250.5575,"gap_pct":-27.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":294.491,"actual":254.341,"gap_pct":-13.63}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-45.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (254k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":254.341,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (254k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":254.341,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 254k, 3% above the UN 2024 medium variant (246k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":245.9,"actual_births_k":254.341,"gap_pct":3.4,"un_lower95_births_k":180.3,"below_lower95":false,"source":"National Data Office (국가데이터처, formerly Statistics Korea), '2025 Birth Statistics' (final), released 2026-08-26, Table 1 and appendix table 1","source_url":"https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=285815"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 211k (−17% vs 2025), 2100 — 119k (−53% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 31.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":254.341},"values":{"2050":211.3,"2100":119.2},"low_2100":31.82}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KOR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}