{"locations":[{"code":"KNA","name":"Saint Kitts and Nevis","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KNA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.38 in 1950 → 1.51 in 2023 (−76%). Peak: 7.26 in 1958; the latest value is 79% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2001. The trend broke around 1957 and 1978: +0.14 → −0.2 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.379,"last":1.505,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":7.26},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2001,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":0.14,"slope_after":-0.198},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.198,"slope_after":-0.0409}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.34k in 1950 → 0.55k in 2023 (−77%). Peak: 2.54k in 1958; the latest value is 78% lower. The trend broke around 1959 and 1970: +0.02k → −0.12k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.339,"last":0.549,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":2.539},"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.023,"slope_after":-0.116},{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.116,"slope_after":-0.0132}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 76.9% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2009. Fastest growth in 2004–2009: 24.7% → 55.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":76.884,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2004,"to":2009,"start":24.7377,"end":55.7}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 27.5% in 1960 → 31.9% in 2025 (+4.4 pp). Peak: 35.9% in 1980; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1975 and 2012: +0.59 → −0.15 → +0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":27.5366,"last":31.8988,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":35.9019},"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.587,"slope_after":-0.148},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.148,"slope_after":0.0535}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 14,326 PPP dollars in 1990 → 31,428 PPP dollars in 2025 (+119%). The trend broke around 2017: change slowed down (+585 → +99 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":14326.0411,"last":31427.6631,"breaks":[{"year":2017,"slope_before":585,"slope_after":99.2}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 6.01 → 3.68. Over the same years: births 1.88k → 1.2k; urban share 30.9% → 35.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":6.008,"end":3.675,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":1.876,"end":1.203},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":30.8849,"end":35.402},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.68 → 1.51; births 0.67k → 0.55k; internet 64.6% → 76.6%; urban share 31.2% → 31.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 26,532 PPP dollars → 30,617 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.682,"end":1.505,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.666,"end":0.549},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.6,"end":76.5895},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31.2131,"end":31.7008},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":26532.1017,"end":30616.5773}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.67). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.977,"r_changes":0.674,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.948,"r_changes":-0.165,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.14); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.144,"r_changes":-0.206,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.964,"r_changes":-0.011,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.505,"actual":1.505,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.50 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+4% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.505},"values":{"2050":1.503,"2100":1.561},"low_2100":1.061}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −1.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.555,"actual":0.549,"gap_pct":-1.08}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-1.08,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.55k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.549,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.4k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.24k (−56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.07k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.549},"values":{"2050":0.396,"2100":0.241},"low_2100":0.073}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KNA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}