{"locations":[{"code":"KIR","name":"Kiribati","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KIR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.13 in 1950 → 3.15 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 6.48 in 1961; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 1973: +0.02 → −0.13 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.13,"last":3.147,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":6.477},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0182,"slope_after":-0.131},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.131,"slope_after":-0.0423}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.64k in 1950 → 3.42k in 2023 (+108%). The trend broke around 2005 and 2011: +0.02k → +0.08k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.641,"last":3.421,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.0217,"slope_after":0.0796},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.0796,"slope_after":-0.000805}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.4% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 25.3% → 85%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.4403,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":25.3096,"end":84.9985}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 15.2% in 1960 → 63.4% in 2025 (+48 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2014. The trend broke around 1968 and 2014: +1.1 → +0.56 → +1.3 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":15.22,"last":63.3851,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":1.09,"slope_after":0.56},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.56,"slope_after":1.33}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,214 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,364 PPP dollars in 2025 (+52%). Low: 2,047 PPP dollars in 1991; +64% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2010: +49 → −28 → +84 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2213.8238,"last":3363.9952,"trough":{"year":1991,"value":2047.4161},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":49,"slope_after":-28},{"year":2010,"slope_before":-28,"slope_after":84.1}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 6.23 → 4.96. Over the same years: births 2.3k → 2.15k; urban share 21.9% → 29%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":6.225,"end":4.964,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.297,"end":2.147},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":21.8758,"end":28.9687},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.64 → 3.15; births 3.42k → 3.42k; internet 11.5% → 88%; urban share 50% → 61.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,383 PPP dollars → 3,175 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.643,"end":3.147,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.42,"end":3.421},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11.5,"end":88},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":49.9687,"end":61.5245},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2382.6756,"end":3175.0248}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.76). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.916,"r_changes":0.756,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.768,"r_changes":0.031,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.972,"r_changes":0.102,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.61); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.613,"r_changes":-0.171,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 1; median gap −4.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.817,"actual":3.3338,"gap_pct":18.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.578,"actual":3.3338,"gap_pct":-6.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.584,"actual":3.3338,"gap_pct":-6.98},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.235,"actual":3.147,"gap_pct":-2.72}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-4.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection expected today's level (3.15, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.147,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.15, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.147,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.48 (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.95 (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.45.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.147},"values":{"2050":2.482,"2100":1.946},"low_2100":1.446}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 3; median gap +5.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.518,"actual":3.4138,"gap_pct":35.58},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.238,"actual":3.4138,"gap_pct":5.43},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.247,"actual":3.4138,"gap_pct":5.14},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.495,"actual":3.421,"gap_pct":-2.12}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":5.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.53k (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.86k (−16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.26k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.421},"values":{"2050":3.526,"2100":2.858},"low_2100":1.258}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KIR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}