{"locations":[{"code":"KHM","name":"Cambodia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KHM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.53 in 1950 → 2.58 in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1978 and 1984: −0.09 → +0.26 → −0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.53,"last":2.579,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0911,"slope_after":0.261},{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.261,"slope_after":-0.112}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 204k in 1950 → 362k in 2023 (+77%). Low: 111k in 1977; ×3.3 since then. The trend broke around 1978 and 1991: −1.01k → +11.5k → +0.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":204,"last":361.6,"trough":{"year":1977,"value":111},"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":-1.01,"slope_after":11.5},{"year":1991,"slope_before":11.5,"slope_after":0.156}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 68.5% in 2024 (+68 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2016, above 50% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2013–2018: 6% → 65%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":68.4753,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2013,"to":2018,"start":6,"end":65}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 10.2% in 1960 → 41.1% in 2025 (+31 pp). Low: 4.7% in 1975; +36 pp since then. The trend broke around 2008: change sped up (+0.17 → +1.5 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":10.1776,"last":41.1056,"trough":{"year":1975,"value":4.6787},"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":0.168,"slope_after":1.52}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,646 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,300 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.8). Low: 1,595 PPP dollars in 1997; ×4.6 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: −234 → +87 → +227 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2646.098,"last":7300.0808,"trough":{"year":1997,"value":1595.1713},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-234,"slope_after":87.3},{"year":2002,"slope_before":87.3,"slope_after":227}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 6.20 → 2.72. Over the same years: births 267k → 111k; urban share 10.5% → 5.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":6.2,"end":2.716,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":267.1,"end":111},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":10.4721,"end":5.5515},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.74 → 2.58; births 373k → 362k; internet 6% → 68.9%; urban share 25.8% → 40.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,419 PPP dollars → 6,695 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.742,"end":2.579,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":372.6,"end":361.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6,"end":68.9255},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":25.7645,"end":40.6291},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4419.3989,"end":6695.2919}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.50); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.91). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.504,"r_changes":0.905,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.51); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.513,"r_changes":0.08,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.58); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.46). Changes line up best with a 5 years shift: \"Urban share\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = −0.77).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.576,"r_changes":0.464,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":{"years":-5,"r":-0.77,"leader":"urban_population"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.70); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 3 years shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.62).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.702,"r_changes":0.133,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-3,"r":0.624,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +1.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.85,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":-4.51},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.312,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":-17.83},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.249,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":-16.24},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.013,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":-9.68},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.684,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":1.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.527,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":7.69},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.174,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":25.18},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.714,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":0.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.526,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":7.74},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.524,"actual":2.7214,"gap_pct":7.82},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.281,"actual":2.579,"gap_pct":13.06}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":1.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.58) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.579,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.58) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.579,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.04 (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.80 (−30% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.30.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.579},"values":{"2050":2.035,"2100":1.8},"low_2100":1.3}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −1.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":359.521,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":5.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":550.345,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":-31.1},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":524.293,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":-27.68},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":460.57,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":-17.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":421.393,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":-10.02},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":396.628,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":-4.4},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":304.919,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":24.35},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":384.027,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":-1.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":370.669,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":2.3},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":366.238,"actual":379.18,"gap_pct":3.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":313.156,"actual":361.6,"gap_pct":15.47}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-1.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (362k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":361.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (362k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":361.6,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 328k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 237k (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 89.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":361.6},"values":{"2050":327.8,"2100":236.8},"low_2100":89.72}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KHM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}