{"locations":[{"code":"KGZ","name":"Kyrgyzstan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KGZ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.63 in 1950 → 2.80 in 2023 (−39%). Peak: 5.48 in 1963; the latest value is 49% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 2001: +0.07 → −0.08 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.626,"last":2.8,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":5.479},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0674,"slope_after":-0.0783},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0783,"slope_after":0.0186}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 63.7k in 1950 → 151k in 2023 (+137%). Peak: 173k in 2019; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1999: +1.91k → −3.39k → +2.32k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":63.72,"last":150.8,"peak":{"year":2019,"value":172.6},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":1.91,"slope_after":-3.39},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-3.39,"slope_after":2.32}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92% in 2024 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2017, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 30.2% → 72%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":92.0286,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":30.247,"end":72}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34.4% in 1960 → 34.7% in 2025 (+0.4 pp). The trend broke around 1981 and 2000: +0.18 → −0.19 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.3506,"last":34.7464,"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.183,"slope_after":-0.191},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.191,"slope_after":-0.0274}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,096 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,878 PPP dollars in 2025 (+29%). Low: 2,975 PPP dollars in 1995; ×2.6 since then. The trend broke around 1996: direction reversed (−460 → +137 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6095.6811,"last":7878.4491,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":2974.7116},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-460,"slope_after":137}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 4.16 → 2.88. Over the same years: births 146k → 116k; internet 0.1% (1998); urban share 38.2% → 35.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,400 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":4.163,"end":2.88,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":146,"end":116.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":0.0728},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":38.1906,"end":35.5531},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":3399.9343}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.15 → 2.80; births 153k → 151k; internet 23% → 91%; urban share 35.2% → 34.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,419 PPP dollars → 6,576 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.15,"end":2.8,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":153,"end":150.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":23,"end":91.0444},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.1851,"end":34.7064},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5418.5406,"end":6575.7754}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.65); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.84). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.65,"r_changes":0.836,"effective_pairs_changes":37,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.24); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.11).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":0.237,"r_changes":-0.111,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.53); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.45).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.531,"r_changes":0.451,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.35); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.348,"r_changes":0.239,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +45%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":51.3},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":51.3},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.936,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":64.11},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.079,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":52.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.123,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":49.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.196,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":44.68},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.55,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":24.6},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.907,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":9.29},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.926,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":8.59},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.909,"actual":3.1772,"gap_pct":9.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.907,"actual":2.8,"gap_pct":-3.68}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":44.68,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.80) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.8,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.80, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.23 (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.85 (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.35.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.8},"values":{"2050":2.229,"2100":1.845},"low_2100":1.345}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +41%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":101.948,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":56.31},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":109.446,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":45.6},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":101.277,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":57.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":106.782,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":49.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":108.86,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":46.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":113.165,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":40.81},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":130.405,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":22.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":148.314,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":7.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":147.68,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":7.9},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":145.634,"actual":159.35,"gap_pct":9.42},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":152.434,"actual":150.8,"gap_pct":-1.07}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":40.81,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 159k (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 128k (−15% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 52.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":150.8},"values":{"2050":159.4,"2100":128.1},"low_2100":52.67}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KGZ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}