{"locations":[{"code":"KEN","name":"Kenya","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KEN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.39 in 1950 → 3.21 in 2023 (−57%). Peak: 7.96 in 1966; the latest value is 60% lower. The trend broke around 1976: direction reversed (+0.02 → −0.13 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.389,"last":3.208,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":7.955},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.0236,"slope_after":-0.134}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 285k in 1950 → 1.5M in 2023 (×5.3). The trend broke around 2009: direction reversed (+24.7k → −0.64k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":284.6,"last":1500,"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":24.7,"slope_after":-0.636}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 35% in 2024 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 19.5% → 32.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":34.9762,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":19.5,"end":32.0704}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 8.2% in 1960 → 32.2% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 2001 and 2008: +0.31 → +1.5 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":8.2335,"last":32.2121,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":0.314,"slope_after":1.52},{"year":2008,"slope_before":1.52,"slope_after":-0.00948}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,177 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,995 PPP dollars in 2025 (+44%). Low: 3,674 PPP dollars in 2003; +63% since then. The trend broke around 2003 and 2016: −30 → +79 → +137 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4177.486,"last":5995.4018,"trough":{"year":2003,"value":3674.0859},"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":-29.6,"slope_after":78.8},{"year":2016,"slope_before":78.8,"slope_after":137}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1983–1993: 7.22 → 5.57. Over the same years: births 845k → 1.04M; urban share 16.8% → 18.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,845 PPP dollars (1993); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":7.218,"end":5.569,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":845.1,"end":1040},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":16.7673,"end":18.45},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1993,"value":3844.9203}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.96 → 3.21; births 1.46M → 1.5M; internet 13% → 32.1%; urban share 31.8% → 31.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,443 PPP dollars → 5,692 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.955,"end":3.208,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1459,"end":1500},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13,"end":32.0704},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31.8324,"end":31.633},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4443.3712,"end":5691.8251}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.933,"r_changes":0.133,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.32). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.949,"r_changes":-0.324,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.943,"r_changes":0.186,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.858,"r_changes":0.118,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.34,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":52.41},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.78,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":28.29},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.791,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":27.78},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.036,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-11.64},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.036,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-11.64},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.036,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-11.64},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.343,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-17.88},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.077,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-12.52},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.1,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-13.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.774,"actual":3.5664,"gap_pct":-5.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.24,"actual":3.208,"gap_pct":-0.99}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-11.64,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (3.21) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.208,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.21, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.208,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.36 (−27% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−43% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.208},"values":{"2050":2.355,"2100":1.837},"low_2100":1.337}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −6.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":865.159,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":67.97},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1042.867,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":39.35},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":967.909,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":50.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1511.256,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-3.84},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1574.645,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-7.71},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1589.82,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-8.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1704.467,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-14.74},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1617.544,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-10.16},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1608.777,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-9.67},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1547.223,"actual":1453.2,"gap_pct":-6.08},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1503.36,"actual":1500,"gap_pct":-0.22}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-6.08,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.5M) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1500,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (1.5M) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1500,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.6M (+7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.28M (−15% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 543k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1500},"values":{"2050":1598,"2100":1281},"low_2100":542.8}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KEN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}