{"locations":[{"code":"KAZ","name":"Kazakhstan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/KAZ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.56 in 1950 → 2.57 in 2025 (−44%). Low: 1.90 in 2000; +35% since then. The trend broke around 1991 and 1998: −0.05 → −0.11 → +0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":4.56,"last":2.57,"trough":{"year":2000,"value":1.898},"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0501,"slope_after":-0.105},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.105,"slope_after":0.0445}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 239k in 1950 → 335k in 2025 (+40%). Peak: 460k in 2021; the latest value is 27% lower. The trend broke around 1988 and 1998: +4.54k → −16.8k → +6.73k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":239.1,"last":335.005,"peak":{"year":2021,"value":459.5},"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":4.54,"slope_after":-16.8},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-16.8,"slope_after":6.73}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.4% in 2024 (+93 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 4% → 61.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.3917,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":4.02,"end":61.9066}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44.7% in 1960 → 62.4% in 2025 (+18 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1969. The trend broke around 1988 and 2011: +0.43 → −0.17 → +0.65 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.7324,"last":62.3856,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.434,"slope_after":-0.169},{"year":2011,"slope_before":-0.169,"slope_after":0.646}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 16,838 PPP dollars in 1990 → 37,851 PPP dollars in 2025 (+125%). Low: 10,600 PPP dollars in 1995; ×3.6 since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2011: −894 → +1,341 → +552 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":16837.6907,"last":37850.5791,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":10600.3302},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-894,"slope_after":1340},{"year":2011,"slope_before":1340,"slope_after":552}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 3.12 → 1.97. Over the same years: births 446k → 264k; internet 0.1% (1997); urban share 57.1% → 56.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,299 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":3.122,"end":1.97,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":445.6,"end":264.4},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.0646},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":57.0745,"end":56.4887},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":11298.5805}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 2.76 → 2.57; births 407k → 335k; internet 70.8% → 93.4%; urban share 56.1% → 62.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 30,894 PPP dollars → 37,851 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":2.755,"end":2.57,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":407.1,"end":335.005},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":70.8299,"end":93.3917},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":56.1106,"end":62.3856},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":30893.7595,"end":37850.5791}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.10); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":-0.097,"r_changes":0.937,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":32,"r_levels":0.857,"r_changes":0.143,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.669,"r_changes":0.088,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.794,"r_changes":0.169,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +37%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":43.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":58.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":62.51},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":62.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.026,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":48.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.026,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":48.39},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.385,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":26.05},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.285,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":31.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.436,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":23.42},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.458,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":22.31},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.622,"actual":3.0064,"gap_pct":14.66},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":2.975,"actual":2.57,"gap_pct":-13.61}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":37.36,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected this level (2.57) already around 2024: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":2.57,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.57, 2025) only around 2043: reality is 18 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":2.57,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2043,"years":18,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.39 (−7% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.94 (−25% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.44.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":2.57},"values":{"2050":2.393,"2100":1.938},"low_2100":1.438}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +47%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":260.654,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":56.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":217.716,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":87.33},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":199.482,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":104.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":201.382,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":102.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":242.165,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":68.42},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":247.265,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":64.95},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":304.528,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":33.93},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":297.181,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":37.24},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":330.547,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":23.39},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":332.504,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":22.66},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":343.845,"actual":407.8551,"gap_pct":18.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":384.906,"actual":335.005,"gap_pct":-12.96}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":46.86,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 335k, 15% below the UN 2024 medium variant (395k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":395,"actual_births_k":335.005,"gap_pct":-15.2,"un_lower95_births_k":333.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Bureau of National Statistics (ASPR), dynamic tables 'Number of births (by years)' (updated 13.07.2026) and 'Total fertility rate (by years)","source_url":"https://stat.gov.kz/api/iblock/element/40407/file/en/"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 450k (+34% vs 2025), 2100 — 384k (+15% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 176k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":335.005},"values":{"2050":450.1,"2100":383.9},"low_2100":175.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=KAZ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}