{"locations":[{"code":"JOR","name":"Jordan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/JOR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.44 in 1950 → 2.64 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 8.19 in 1969; the latest value is 68% lower. The trend broke around 1974 and 1998: +0.04 → −0.17 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.444,"last":2.639,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":8.192},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.0406,"slope_after":-0.17},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.17,"slope_after":-0.0587}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 20.5k in 1950 → 236k in 2023 (×12). The trend broke around 2017: change slowed down (+4.84k → +0.26k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":20.46,"last":235.8,"breaks":[{"year":2017,"slope_before":4.84,"slope_after":0.262}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.6% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2015, above 90% since 2022. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 56.2% → 86%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":95.6224,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":56.15,"end":86}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 42.7% in 1960 → 93.2% in 2025 (+50 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1970, above 75% since 1990. The trend broke around 1995 and 2004: +1.1 → −0.03 → +0.83 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":42.7106,"last":93.2085,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1970,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1990,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1995,"slope_before":1.09,"slope_after":-0.035},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.035,"slope_after":0.831}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,242 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,794 PPP dollars in 2025 (+31%). Peak: 12,104 PPP dollars in 2012; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 2000 and 2009: +62 → +347 → −126 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8241.8048,"last":10794.2403,"peak":{"year":2012,"value":12104.1217},"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":61.6,"slope_after":347},{"year":2009,"slope_before":347,"slope_after":-126}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 6.01 → 4.11. Over the same years: births 124k → 160k; internet 1.3% (1998); urban share 72.3% → 78.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,499 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":6.011,"end":4.112,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":124.1,"end":160.4},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":1.31},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":72.3339,"end":78.2751},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":8499.0769}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.45 → 2.64; births 199k → 236k; internet 41.4% → 92.5%; urban share 86.5% → 92.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,804 PPP dollars → 10,309 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.449,"end":2.639,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":199.2,"end":235.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":41.4,"end":92.5344},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":86.4627,"end":92.6822},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11804.1225,"end":10308.7822}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.936,"r_changes":0.123,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.877,"r_changes":-0.015,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.964,"r_changes":-0.361,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.59); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.594,"r_changes":0.54,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.161,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":-6.3},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.175,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":-6.71},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.519,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":17.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.54,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":16.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.54,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":16.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.54,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":16.61},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.602,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":13.84},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.982,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":-0.67},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.196,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":-7.32},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.264,"actual":2.962,"gap_pct":-9.25},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.745,"actual":2.639,"gap_pct":-3.86}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.67,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.64, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.639,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.64, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.639,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.99 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.73 (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.23.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.639},"values":{"2050":1.994,"2100":1.733},"low_2100":1.233}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":257.359,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":-8.24},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":181.71,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":29.96},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":148.258,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":59.28},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":149.067,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":58.42},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":147.605,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":59.99},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":151.233,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":56.15},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.093,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":54.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":189.053,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":24.91},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":196.354,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":20.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":246.981,"actual":236.15,"gap_pct":-4.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":243.221,"actual":235.8,"gap_pct":-3.05}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":29.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (236k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":235.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 239k (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 220k (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 97.9k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":235.8},"values":{"2050":239.3,"2100":220.4},"low_2100":97.92}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=JOR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}