{"locations":[{"code":"JAM","name":"Jamaica","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/JAM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.92 in 1950 → 1.36 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 5.79 in 1964; the latest value is 77% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2006, below 1.5 since 2016. The trend broke around 1965 and 1981: +0.15 → −0.16 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.923,"last":1.358,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":5.79},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2006,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.145,"slope_after":-0.161},{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.161,"slope_after":-0.0553}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 46k in 1950 → 33k in 2023 (−28%). Peak: 67.9k in 1964; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1959 and 1994: +2.25k → −0.14k → −1.08k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":46.01,"last":33.01,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":67.86},"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":2.25,"slope_after":-0.137},{"year":1994,"slope_before":-0.137,"slope_after":-1.08}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 90.1% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2017, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 44.4% → 82.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":90.1087,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":44.3669,"end":82.3607}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 29.7% in 1960 → 59.4% in 2025 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1993. The trend broke around 1974: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.24 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":29.7499,"last":59.4254,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1993,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":1.1,"slope_after":0.236}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,880 PPP dollars in 1990 → 11,358 PPP dollars in 2025 (+28%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +59 → −116 → +139 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8879.653,"last":11357.9156,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":58.7,"slope_after":-116},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-116,"slope_after":139}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 5.35 → 3.59. Over the same years: births 63.5k → 60.7k; urban share 41.4% → 47.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":5.349,"end":3.588,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":63.46,"end":60.66},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":41.4272,"end":47.1632},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.59 → 1.36; births 38.9k → 33k; internet 37.1% → 89.5%; urban share 54.5% → 58.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,840 PPP dollars → 11,399 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.591,"end":1.358,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":38.91,"end":33.01},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":37.1,"end":89.473},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.5488,"end":58.451},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":9839.9651,"end":11398.812}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.73). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.8,"r_changes":0.729,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.894,"r_changes":0.002,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.961,"r_changes":0.344,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.37).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.56,"r_changes":0.367,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −32%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-32.12},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-32.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.041,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-30.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.109,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-32.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.195,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-35.06},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.174,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-34.43},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.145,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-33.54},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.16,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.99,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-28.37},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.991,"actual":1.4255,"gap_pct":-28.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.337,"actual":1.358,"gap_pct":1.57}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-32.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.36, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.358,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.36, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.358,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.50 (+10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.00.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.358},"values":{"2050":1.406,"2100":1.497},"low_2100":0.997}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.932,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-27.84},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.523,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-31.47},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.356,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-29.88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.278,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-26.86},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.968,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-30.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.299,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-29.8},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.128,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-26.64},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":49.458,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-28.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.241,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-25.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.348,"actual":35.309,"gap_pct":-25.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":32.246,"actual":33.01,"gap_pct":2.37}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-27.84,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (33k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":33.01,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (33k, 2023) only around 2048: reality is 25 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":33.01,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2048,"years":25,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 18.7k (−43% vs 2023), 2100 — 7.1k (−78% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.81k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":33.01},"values":{"2050":18.72,"2100":7.103},"low_2100":0.81}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=JAM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}