{"locations":[{"code":"ITA","name":"Italy","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ITA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.52 in 1950 → 1.14 in 2025 (−55%). Peak: 2.66 in 1964; the latest value is 57% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1976, below 1.5 since 1984. The trend broke around 1969 and 1986: +0.01 → −0.07 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.523,"last":1.14,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.663},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1976,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1984,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0117,"slope_after":-0.0735},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.0735,"slope_after":-0.0000691}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 913k in 1950 → 355k in 2025 (−61%). Peak: 1.01M in 1964; the latest value is 65% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1982: +6.87k → −26k → −4.3k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":912.8,"last":355.435,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":1006},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":6.87,"slope_after":-26},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-26,"slope_after":-4.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.2% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 1% → 27.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0175,"last":89.2207,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":1.02,"end":27.2221}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 59.3% in 1960 → 69.7% in 2025 (+10 pp). The trend broke around 1975 and 1998: +0.46 → +0.02 → +0.12 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.2894,"last":69.6809,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.465,"slope_after":0.0188},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.0188,"slope_after":0.117}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 42,657 PPP dollars in 1990 → 53,606 PPP dollars in 2025 (+26%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2014: +678 → −861 → +640 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":42656.7445,"last":53606.079,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":678,"slope_after":-861},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-861,"slope_after":640}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1974–1984: 2.29 → 1.46. Over the same years: births 865k → 590k; urban share 65.7% → 66.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":2.292,"end":1.458,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":865.4,"end":589.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":65.663,"end":66.8645},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.35 → 1.14; births 480k → 355k; internet 58.1% → 89.2%; urban share 69.6% → 69.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 47,312 PPP dollars → 53,606 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.345,"end":1.14,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":479.6,"end":355.435},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":58.1417,"end":89.2207},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":69.61,"end":69.6809},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":47311.8255,"end":53606.079}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.98). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.977,"r_changes":0.978,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.21); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.209,"r_changes":0.311,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.84,"r_changes":0.209,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.02); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.017,"r_changes":0.076,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-17.54},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.346,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-9.94},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.451,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-16.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.515,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-19.99},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-18.37},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-18.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.634,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-25.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.614,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-24.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.544,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-21.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.542,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-21.39},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.296,"actual":1.2122,"gap_pct":-6.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.316,"actual":1.14,"gap_pct":-13.37}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.37,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.35 (+18% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.48 (+30% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.98.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.14},"values":{"2050":1.349,"2100":1.478},"low_2100":0.978}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":386.976,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":370.087,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":5.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":400.54,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-2.98},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":429.906,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-9.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":458.383,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-15.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":465.743,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-16.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":519.477,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-25.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":531.514,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-26.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":482.462,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-19.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":469.987,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-17.31},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":423.367,"actual":388.6123,"gap_pct":-8.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":402.724,"actual":355.435,"gap_pct":-11.74}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-13.48,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (355k, 2025) only around 2037: reality is 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":355.435,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2037,"years":12,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 355k, 7% below the UN 2024 medium variant (383k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":382.5,"actual_births_k":355.435,"gap_pct":-7.1,"un_lower95_births_k":327,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=IT"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 342k (−4% vs 2025), 2100 — 249k (−30% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 88.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":355.435},"values":{"2050":341.8,"2100":249},"low_2100":88.77}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ITA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}