{"locations":[{"code":"ISR","name":"Israel","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ISR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.57 in 1950 → 2.87 in 2024 (−37%). Peak: 4.74 in 1952; the latest value is 39% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 2018: −0.05 → +0.01 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":4.571,"last":2.87,"peak":{"year":1952,"value":4.741},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.0484,"slope_after":0.0101},{"year":2018,"slope_before":0.0101,"slope_after":-0.0376}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 47.5k in 1950 → 182k in 2025 (×3.8). The trend broke around 1992 and 2015: +1.41k → +2.97k → +0.66k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":47.51,"last":182,"breaks":[{"year":1992,"slope_before":1.41,"slope_after":2.97},{"year":2015,"slope_before":2.97,"slope_after":0.664}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 88.2% in 2024 (+88 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2008. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 25.2% → 67.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.111,"last":88.1824,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":25.194,"end":67.5}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 76.9% in 1960 → 91.6% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1978 and 2002: +0.61 → +0.12 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":76.9069,"last":91.5783,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.611,"slope_after":0.119},{"year":2002,"slope_before":0.119,"slope_after":-0.00417}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 25,341 PPP dollars in 1990 → 48,197 PPP dollars in 2025 (+90%). The trend broke around 1997 and 2003: +888 → +225 → +735 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":25340.9813,"last":48196.6345,"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":888,"slope_after":225},{"year":2003,"slope_before":225,"slope_after":735}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1971–1981: 3.85 → 3.07. Over the same years: births 80.8k → 89.8k; urban share 84.8% → 89.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":3.849,"end":3.073,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":80.76,"end":89.76},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":84.8395,"end":89.1279},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 3.08 → 2.87; births 169k → 182k; internet 75% → 88.2%; urban share 91.7% → 91.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 40,796 PPP dollars → 47,389 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":3.081,"end":2.87,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":169,"end":181.614},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":75.0178,"end":88.1824},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":91.7152,"end":91.5362},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":40795.6291,"end":47388.7237}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.73). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":-0.767,"r_changes":0.728,"effective_pairs_changes":71,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.69); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.33).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.689,"r_changes":0.327,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.956,"r_changes":-0.214,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.59); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.32).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.587,"r_changes":0.318,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +25%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":46.55},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":46.55},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.247,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":36.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.356,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":30.63},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.416,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":27.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.457,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":25.26},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.837,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":8.48},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.795,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":10.11},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.926,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":5.18},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.92,"actual":3.0776,"gap_pct":5.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":2.892,"actual":2.87,"gap_pct":-0.76}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":25.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (2.87) already around 2015: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":2.87,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.87, 2024) only around 2026: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":2.87,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.31 (−19% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.91 (−34% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.41.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":2.87},"values":{"2050":2.313,"2100":1.906},"low_2100":1.406}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":121.495,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":45.37},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":124.008,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":42.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":126.641,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":39.47},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":132.331,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":33.47},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":133.209,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":32.59},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":135.269,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":30.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":157.922,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":11.84},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":154.007,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":14.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":164.868,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":7.13},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":164.961,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":7.07},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":170.368,"actual":176.6228,"gap_pct":3.67},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":176.036,"actual":182,"gap_pct":3.39}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":12,"median_gap_pct":22.63,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (182k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":182,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (182k, 2025) only around 2031: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":182,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 182k, 6% above the UN 2024 medium variant (171k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"estimate","un_medium_births_k":171.4,"actual_births_k":182,"gap_pct":6.2,"un_lower95_births_k":146.9,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Israel CBS media release 422/2025 'Population of Israel on the Eve of 2026' (31 Dec 2025; Hebrew PDF)","source_url":"https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/DocLib/2025/422/01_25_422b.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 212k (+16% vs 2025), 2100 — 227k (+25% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 114k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":182},"values":{"2050":211.9,"2100":226.7},"low_2100":114.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ISR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}