{"locations":[{"code":"IRQ","name":"Iraq","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/IRQ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.20 in 1950 → 3.25 in 2023 (−48%). Peak: 7.08 in 1969; the latest value is 54% lower. The trend broke around 1958 and 1966: −0.22 → +0.29 → −0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.2,"last":3.248,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":7.083},"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":-0.224,"slope_after":0.292},{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.292,"slope_after":-0.0725}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 259k in 1950 → 1.16M in 2023 (×4.5). Low: 221k in 1957; ×5.3 since then. The trend broke around 1987 and 2014: +11.3k → +19.6k → −3.29k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":259.4,"last":1160,"trough":{"year":1957,"value":220.7},"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":11.3,"slope_after":19.6},{"year":2014,"slope_before":19.6,"slope_after":-3.29}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 81.5% in 2024 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2014, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 26% → 78.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":81.4745,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2014,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":25.9692,"end":78.7156}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44% in 1960 → 69.9% in 2025 (+26 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1964. The trend broke around 1984 and 1997: +1 → −0.22 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":43.9759,"last":69.9397,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1964,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":1.03,"slope_after":-0.223},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.223,"slope_after":0.0986}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,735 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,192 PPP dollars in 2025 (+14%). Peak: 15,016 PPP dollars in 2016; the latest value is 19% lower. The trend broke around 2017: direction reversed (+315 → −280 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10735.0941,"last":12191.5565,"peak":{"year":2016,"value":15016.0921},"breaks":[{"year":2017,"slope_before":315,"slope_after":-280}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 4.54 → 3.30. Over the same years: births 1.17M → 1.15M; internet 7.1% → 78.7%; urban share 69.2% → 69.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,357 PPP dollars → 13,433 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":4.544,"end":3.295,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":1172,"end":1146},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":7.1,"end":78.7156},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":69.2222,"end":69.8683},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":13357.0144,"end":13433.3977}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.68). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.817,"r_changes":0.679,"effective_pairs_changes":43,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":-0.833,"r_changes":-0.023,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.60); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.598,"r_changes":0.288,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.785,"r_changes":0.063,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.311,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":10.29},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.31,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":10.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.279,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":11.37},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.299,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":10.69},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.314,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":10.19},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.257,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":12.12},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.232,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":-13.71},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.773,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":-3.21},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.35,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":-16.05},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.266,"actual":3.6517,"gap_pct":-14.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.397,"actual":3.248,"gap_pct":-4.39}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":10.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.25) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.248,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.25, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.248,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.45 (−25% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.92 (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.42.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.248},"values":{"2050":2.448,"2100":1.915},"low_2100":1.415}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":882.398,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":28.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":875.269,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":29.21},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":950.468,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":18.98},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1020.788,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":10.79},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1003.094,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":12.74},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1002.244,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":12.84},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1279.181,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":-11.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1123.481,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":0.66},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1299.858,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":-13},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1260.595,"actual":1130.9,"gap_pct":-10.29},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1216.097,"actual":1160,"gap_pct":-4.61}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":10.79,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.34M (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.19M (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 538k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1160},"values":{"2050":1337,"2100":1194},"low_2100":537.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=IRQ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}