{"locations":[{"code":"IRN","name":"Iran","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/IRN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.97 in 1950 → 1.70 in 2023 (−76%). Peak: 7.57 in 1959; the latest value is 78% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1999. The trend broke around 1986 and 1998: −0.03 → −0.36 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.97,"last":1.695,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":7.572},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1999,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.0342,"slope_after":-0.357},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.357,"slope_after":-0.00568}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 838k in 1950 → 1.17M in 2023 (+40%). Peak: 2.1M in 1985; the latest value is 44% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1996: +33.2k → −163k → +13.3k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":838.1,"last":1173,"peak":{"year":1985,"value":2102},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":33.2,"slope_after":-163},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-163,"slope_after":13.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 85.3% in 2024 (+85 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 22.7% → 64%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":85.3404,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":22.73,"end":64.044}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34% in 1960 → 77.4% in 2025 (+43 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1981, above 75% since 2019.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":33.9658,"last":77.3762,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1981,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 9,656 PPP dollars in 1990 → 16,834 PPP dollars in 2025 (+74%). The trend broke around 1999 and 2007: +122 → +460 → +91 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":9656.0012,"last":16833.7822,"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":122,"slope_after":460},{"year":2007,"slope_before":460,"slope_after":91.3}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1986–1996: 6.01 → 2.54. Over the same years: births 2.09M → 1.12M; internet 0% (1996); urban share 54.2% → 61.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,010 PPP dollars (1996).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":6.011,"end":2.542,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":2094,"end":1116},{"id":"internet_users","year":1996,"value":0.0158},{"id":"urban_population","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":54.1512,"end":61.0622},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1996,"value":11010.0095}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.91 → 1.70; births 1.49M → 1.17M; internet 30% → 83.7%; urban share 72.3% → 76.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 14,735 PPP dollars → 17,045 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.913,"end":1.695,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1490,"end":1173},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.95,"end":83.7105},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":72.3031,"end":76.676},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14734.7406,"end":17044.8173}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.04); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.79). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.039,"r_changes":0.787,"effective_pairs_changes":8,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.35); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.351,"r_changes":0.19,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.947,"r_changes":-0.233,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.725,"r_changes":0.174,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +1.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":-8.38},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":-8.38},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.951,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":-1.38},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":1.27},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":1.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":7.49},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.451,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":32.61},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.888,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":1.91},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.618,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":18.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.621,"actual":1.9241,"gap_pct":18.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.677,"actual":1.695,"gap_pct":1.07}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":1.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.63 (−4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.64 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.14.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.695},"values":{"2050":1.626,"2100":1.636},"low_2100":1.136}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1636.824,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":-11.57},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1752.033,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":-17.38},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1506.083,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":-3.89},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1450.491,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":-0.21},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1415.534,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":2.26},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1313.87,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":10.17},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1078.093,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":34.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1370.439,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":5.62},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1263.737,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":14.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1266.892,"actual":1447.5,"gap_pct":14.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1144.658,"actual":1173,"gap_pct":2.48}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.48,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (1.17M) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1173,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.17M, 2023) only around 2061: reality is 38 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1173,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2061,"years":38,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 986k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 613k (−48% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 204k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1173},"values":{"2050":985.6,"2100":613.4},"low_2100":204}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=IRN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}