{"locations":[{"code":"IMN","name":"Isle of Man","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/IMN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.41 in 1950 → 1.55 in 2023 (−36%). Peak: 2.69 in 1961; the latest value is 42% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1976. The trend broke around 1965 and 1979: +0.03 → −0.05 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.407,"last":1.548,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":2.688},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1976,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0344,"slope_after":-0.0451},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0451,"slope_after":-0.00723}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.89k in 1950 → 0.7k in 2023 (−21%). Peak: 0.95k in 2008; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 1956 and 2007: −0.05k → +0.01k → −0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.887,"last":0.702,"peak":{"year":2008,"value":0.954},"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":-0.046,"slope_after":0.00711},{"year":2007,"slope_before":0.00711,"slope_after":-0.0189}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 55.1% in 1960 → 52.1% in 2025 (−3 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1977: +0.16 → −0.74 → +0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":55.1103,"last":52.1358,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.161,"slope_after":-0.737},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.737,"slope_after":0.0294}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 2.57 → 1.95. Over the same years: births 0.76k → 0.77k; urban share 55.9% → 50.4%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":2.566,"end":1.954,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":0.764,"end":0.772},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":55.9002,"end":50.4393}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.82 → 1.55; births 0.88k → 0.7k; urban share 52.1% → 52.2%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.824,"end":1.548,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.877,"end":0.702},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":52.0804,"end":52.1833}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.44); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.64). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.438,"r_changes":0.639,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.47). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.828,"r_changes":0.472,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.567,"actual":1.548,"gap_pct":-1.21}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-1.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.54 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.58 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.548},"values":{"2050":1.536,"2100":1.584},"low_2100":1.084}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.72,"actual":0.702,"gap_pct":-2.5}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-2.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.61k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.44k (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.702},"values":{"2050":0.608,"2100":0.438},"low_2100":0.155}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=IMN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}