{"locations":[{"code":"HTI","name":"Haiti","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/HTI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.25 in 1950 → 2.66 in 2023 (−58%). The trend broke around 1990: change sped up (−0.02 → −0.1 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.251,"last":2.656,"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.0246,"slope_after":-0.104}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 152k in 1950 → 258k in 2023 (+70%). The trend broke around 1971 and 1991: +1.95k → +3.7k → +0.04k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":151.7,"last":258.3,"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":1.95,"slope_after":3.7},{"year":1991,"slope_before":3.7,"slope_after":0.0391}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 47.9% in 2024 (+48 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 14.2% → 39.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":47.8614,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":14.2,"end":39.3881}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 15.2% in 1960 → 55.6% in 2025 (+40 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2016. The trend broke around 1990 and 2004: +0.24 → +1.3 → +0.65 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":15.2364,"last":55.6149,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.24,"slope_after":1.34},{"year":2004,"slope_before":1.34,"slope_after":0.651}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,923 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,678 PPP dollars in 2025 (−32%). The trend broke around 1996 and 2018: −132 → +16 → −105 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3923.222,"last":2677.8939,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-132,"slope_after":16},{"year":2018,"slope_before":16,"slope_after":-105}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1992–2002: 5.21 → 4.13. Over the same years: births 263k → 263k; internet 0.9% (2002); urban share 26.4% → 40%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,635 PPP dollars → 3,145 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":5.208,"end":4.125,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":262.9,"end":263.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":2002,"value":0.8934},{"id":"urban_population","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":26.3664,"end":39.9709},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":3635.1389,"end":3145.0369}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.22 → 2.66; births 266k → 258k; internet 10.6% → 48%; urban share 48.1% → 54.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,357 PPP dollars → 2,939 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.221,"end":2.656,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":266.4,"end":258.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10.6,"end":47.9927},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":48.1049,"end":54.4497},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3356.8373,"end":2939.1238}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.50).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.818,"r_changes":0.495,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.829,"r_changes":-0.038,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −1.00); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.67). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.997,"r_changes":-0.669,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.31); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). Changes line up best with a 4 years shift: \"Fertility (TFR)\" moves first, then \"GDP per person (PPP)\" (r = −0.58).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.314,"r_changes":0.034,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":4,"r":-0.581,"leader":"tfr"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +1.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.959,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":-0.09},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.959,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":-0.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.959,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":-0.09},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.941,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":0.52},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.908,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":1.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.908,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":1.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.848,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":3.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.895,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":2.12},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.847,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":3.84},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.848,"actual":2.9564,"gap_pct":3.81},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.733,"actual":2.656,"gap_pct":-2.82}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":1.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.66, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.656,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.66, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.656,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.06 (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.77 (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.27.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.656},"values":{"2050":2.063,"2100":1.771},"low_2100":1.271}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":268.053,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":-0.83},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":262.592,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":1.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":246.771,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":7.72},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":246.644,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":7.77},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":269.962,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":-1.53},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":275.638,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":-3.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":261.987,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":1.46},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":262.663,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":1.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":262.058,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":1.44},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":261.33,"actual":265.82,"gap_pct":1.72},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":267.648,"actual":258.3,"gap_pct":-3.49}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":1.23,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (258k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":258.3,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (258k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":258.3,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 233k (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 172k (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 68.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":258.3},"values":{"2050":233.4,"2100":171.7},"low_2100":68.57}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=HTI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}