{"locations":[{"code":"HND","name":"Honduras","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/HND/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.47 in 1950 → 2.50 in 2023 (−67%). The trend broke around 1972 and 2013: −0.02 → −0.11 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.469,"last":2.5,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":-0.0157,"slope_after":-0.108},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-0.108,"slope_after":-0.0308}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 81.8k in 1950 → 234k in 2023 (×2.9). The trend broke around 1998: change slowed down (+3.22k → +0.36k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":81.84,"last":233.8,"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":3.22,"slope_after":0.361}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 58.6% in 2024 (+59 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 31.7% → 56.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":58.6227,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":31.7358,"end":56.8807}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23.3% in 1960 → 59.3% in 2025 (+36 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2008. The trend broke around 1966: change sped up (+0.38 → +0.85 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.3496,"last":59.2517,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.38,"slope_after":0.847}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,172 PPP dollars in 1990 → 6,726 PPP dollars in 2025 (×5.7). The trend broke around 2000: change slowed down (+375 → +81 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1172.0798,"last":6726.1669,"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":375,"slope_after":80.6}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1996–2006: 4.71 → 3.45. Over the same years: births 214k → 220k; internet 0% → 7.8%; urban share 43.3% → 48.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,054 PPP dollars → 5,263 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1996,"to":2006,"start":4.713,"end":3.449,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1996,"to":2006,"start":214.2,"end":220.1},{"id":"internet_users","from":1996,"to":2006,"start":0.0437,"end":7.8},{"id":"urban_population","from":1996,"to":2006,"start":43.3335,"end":48.779},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1996,"to":2006,"start":3054.1577,"end":5263.1503}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.86 → 2.50; births 221k → 234k; internet 17.8% → 58.1%; urban share 53.4% → 58.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,644 PPP dollars → 6,468 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.855,"end":2.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":220.5,"end":233.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17.8,"end":58.0686},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":53.3564,"end":58.3132},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5644.1338,"end":6467.88}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.939,"r_changes":-0.035,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.825,"r_changes":0.028,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.989,"r_changes":-0.239,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.954,"r_changes":0.109,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +3.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.57,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":3.38},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.571,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":3.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.571,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":3.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.658,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":-0.04},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.658,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":-0.04},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.658,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":-0.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.746,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":-3.24},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.8,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":-5.11},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.251,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":18.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.415,"actual":2.6569,"gap_pct":10.02},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.306,"actual":2.5,"gap_pct":8.41}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":3.34,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.50) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.5,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (2.50, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.5,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.00 (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.77 (−29% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.27.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.5},"values":{"2050":2.001,"2100":1.765},"low_2100":1.265}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":209.26,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":8.42},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":203.417,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":11.53},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":204.695,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":10.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":208.538,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":8.79},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":200.888,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":12.93},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":202.116,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":12.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":208.267,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":8.93},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":212.372,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":6.83},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":169.979,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":33.47},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":199.413,"actual":226.87,"gap_pct":13.77},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":217.165,"actual":233.8,"gap_pct":7.66}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":10.83,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 218k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 169k (−28% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 66.9k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":233.8},"values":{"2050":217.6,"2100":169.4},"low_2100":66.91}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=HND&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}