{"locations":[{"code":"HKG","name":"Hong Kong","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/HKG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.26 in 1950 → 0.73 in 2025 (−83%). Peak: 5.18 in 1962; the latest value is 86% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1980, below 1.5 since 1986, below 1.0 since 2020. The trend broke around 1962 and 1983: +0.07 → −0.18 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":4.255,"last":0.733,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.177},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1980,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1986,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.0749,"slope_after":-0.178},{"year":1983,"slope_before":-0.178,"slope_after":-0.0132}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 78.8k in 1950 → 31.1k in 2025 (−61%). Peak: 153k in 1965; the latest value is 80% lower.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":78.77,"last":31.053,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":153.4}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.8% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2003, above 90% since 2018. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 14.5% → 52.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":95.7554,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":14.5,"end":52.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 85.2% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1985 and 1991: +0.33 → +1.2 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":85.2,"last":100,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.331,"slope_after":1.19},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.19,"slope_after":0.00113}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 31,599 PPP dollars in 1990 → 68,725 PPP dollars in 2025 (+117%). The trend broke around 2001 and 2013: +575 → +1,847 → +385 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":31598.7265,"last":68724.5566,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":575,"slope_after":1850},{"year":2013,"slope_before":1850,"slope_after":385}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 4.92 → 2.63. Over the same years: births 153k → 80.2k; urban share 85.9% → 89.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":4.923,"end":2.627,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":153.4,"end":80.16},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":85.9387,"end":89.5174},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.23 → 0.73; births 79.8k → 31.1k; internet 84.9% → 95.8%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 62,780 PPP dollars → 68,725 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.227,"end":0.733,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":79.75,"end":31.053},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":84.9484,"end":95.7554},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":62779.7552,"end":68724.5566}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.67); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.26).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.668,"r_changes":0.255,"effective_pairs_changes":72,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.549,"r_changes":-0.212,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.924,"r_changes":0.011,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.43); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.43).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.425,"r_changes":0.425,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −44%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.6,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-51.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.556,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-50.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-47.53},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.17,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-34.08},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.091,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-29.3},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.109,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-30.45},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.381,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-44.15},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.29,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-40.21},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.377,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-43.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.422,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-45.76},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.413,"actual":0.7713,"gap_pct":-45.41},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":0.794,"actual":0.733,"gap_pct":-7.68}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-44.07,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.96 (+31% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.20 (+63% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.70.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.733},"values":{"2050":0.961,"2100":1.197},"low_2100":0.697}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −38%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.45,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-36.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.193,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-45.2},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.591,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-43.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.595,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-27.81},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.424,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-23.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.751,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-22.74},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":73.279,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-42.27},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":64.241,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-34.15},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":69.646,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-39.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.399,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-48.66},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.332,"actual":42.3019,"gap_pct":-48.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":39.824,"actual":31.053,"gap_pct":-22.02}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-37.8,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (31.1k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":31.053,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (31.1k, 2025) only around 2094: reality is 69 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":31.053,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2094,"years":69,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 31.1k, 20% below the UN 2024 medium variant (39k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":38.96,"actual_births_k":31.053,"gap_pct":-20.3,"un_lower95_births_k":26.32,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) Table 115-01012A (births, release 18 Sep 2026) and Table 115-01011 (TFR, release 3 Aug 2026)","source_url":"https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/web_table.html?id=115-01012A"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 20.8k (−33% vs 2025), 2100 — 5.67k (−82% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.61k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":31.053},"values":{"2050":20.81,"2100":5.667},"low_2100":0.612}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=HKG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}