{"locations":[{"code":"GUY","name":"Guyana","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GUY/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.83 in 1950 → 2.41 in 2023 (−59%). Peak: 6.34 in 1961; the latest value is 62% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1981: +0.04 → −0.16 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.834,"last":2.413,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":6.339},"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.0414,"slope_after":-0.163},{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.163,"slope_after":-0.0282}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 18.1k in 1950 → 16.8k in 2023 (−8%). Peak: 26.1k in 1971; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 2010: +0.4k → −0.26k → +0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":18.14,"last":16.76,"peak":{"year":1971,"value":26.08},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.404,"slope_after":-0.26},{"year":2010,"slope_before":-0.26,"slope_after":0.0208}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83% in 2024 (+83 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 35.7% → 71.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":83.0008,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":35.66,"end":71.6509}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 29% in 1960 → 26.5% in 2025 (−2.5 pp). Peak: 30.1% in 1970; the latest value is 12% lower. The trend broke around 1996 and 2011: 0 → −0.21 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":29.0162,"last":26.4914,"peak":{"year":1970,"value":30.1153},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.00482,"slope_after":-0.211},{"year":2011,"slope_before":-0.211,"slope_after":0.00692}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,074 PPP dollars in 1990 → 83,659 PPP dollars in 2025 (×16). The trend broke around 2019: change sped up (+176 → +10,891 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":5074.4311,"last":83658.6773,"breaks":[{"year":2019,"slope_before":176,"slope_after":10900}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 5.75 → 3.97. Over the same years: births 25.7k → 24.5k; urban share 30.1% → 29.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":5.751,"end":3.967,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":25.66,"end":24.5},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":30.0508,"end":29.5553},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.71 → 2.41; births 16.9k → 16.8k; internet 31% → 79.4%; urban share 26.4% → 26.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,897 PPP dollars → 49,312 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.711,"end":2.413,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16.92,"end":16.76},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31,"end":79.3553},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":26.4004,"end":26.4651},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11896.907,"end":49312.3603}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.61); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.60). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.61,"r_changes":0.604,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.804,"r_changes":0.059,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.66); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.661,"r_changes":0.164,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.615,"r_changes":0.064,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":22.67},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":22.67},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.013,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":27.97},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.854,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":38.94},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.127,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":21.11},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.126,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":21.17},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.071,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":24.38},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.396,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":7.51},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.474,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":4.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.473,"actual":2.576,"gap_pct":4.16},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.348,"actual":2.413,"gap_pct":2.77}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":21.17,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.41) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.413,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (2.41) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.413,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.98 (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.413},"values":{"2050":1.978,"2100":1.777},"low_2100":1.277}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +31%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.32,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":4.96},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.191,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":40.51},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.859,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":44.45},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.783,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":58.86},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.223,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":52.63},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.082,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":41.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.083,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":30.93},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.632,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":9.58},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.488,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":10.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.817,"actual":17.13,"gap_pct":8.3},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":15.943,"actual":16.76,"gap_pct":5.12}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":30.93,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 13.8k (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.08k (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.17k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":16.76},"values":{"2050":13.84,"2100":9.077},"low_2100":3.167}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GUY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}