{"locations":[{"code":"GUM","name":"Guam","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GUM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.21 in 1950 → 2.78 in 2023 (−47%). Peak: 6.45 in 1957; the latest value is 57% lower. The trend broke around 1957 and 1979: +0.17 → −0.16 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.21,"last":2.781,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":6.45},"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":0.174,"slope_after":-0.157},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.157,"slope_after":-0.00187}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.76k in 1950 → 2.94k in 2023 (+67%). Peak: 3.76k in 1998; the latest value is 22% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 1992: +0.03k → +0.08k → −0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.761,"last":2.941,"peak":{"year":1998,"value":3.763},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.032,"slope_after":0.0837},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.0837,"slope_after":-0.0224}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 80.5% in 2017 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2009. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 4.5% → 33.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":80.5055,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":4.5,"end":33.7167}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 79.3% in 1960 → 94.2% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 2009: +1.2 → +0.15 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":79.305,"last":94.2197,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":1.2,"slope_after":0.153},{"year":2009,"slope_before":0.153,"slope_after":0.00697}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 5.90 → 4.05. Over the same years: births 2.5k → 2.73k; urban share 83.1% → 88.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":5.899,"end":4.046,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":2.497,"end":2.733},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":83.1264,"end":88.7493}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.88 → 2.78; births 3.31k → 2.94k; internet 65.4% (2013); urban share 94.1% → 94.1%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.883,"end":2.781,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.309,"end":2.941},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":65.4},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":94.0783,"end":94.1349}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.76). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.827,"r_changes":0.763,"effective_pairs_changes":67,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 25 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.22).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":25,"r_levels":0.005,"r_changes":-0.216,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.845,"r_changes":0.006,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":43.87},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.79,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":8.29},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.338,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":29.22},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.365,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":27.75},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.274,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":32.86},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.274,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":32.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.304,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":31.13},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.31,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":30.79},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.317,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":30.39},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.319,"actual":3.0212,"gap_pct":30.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.525,"actual":2.781,"gap_pct":10.14}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":30.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (2.78) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.781,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.15 (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.781},"values":{"2050":2.152,"2100":1.839},"low_2100":1.339}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.533,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-7.3},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.634,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-29.33},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.539,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-7.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.487,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-6.08},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.3,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-0.76},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.3,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-0.76},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.343,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":-2.03},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.954,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":10.87},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.961,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":10.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.747,"actual":3.275,"gap_pct":19.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.823,"actual":2.941,"gap_pct":4.18}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (2.94k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.941,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (2.94k, 2023) only around 2046: reality is 23 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.941,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2046,"years":23,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.78k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.01k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.83k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.941},"values":{"2050":2.78,"2100":2.006},"low_2100":0.828}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GUM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}