{"locations":[{"code":"GUF","name":"French Guiana","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GUF/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.91 in 1950 → 3.39 in 2023 (−31%). Peak: 5.29 in 1964; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1976: +0.02 → −0.17 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.905,"last":3.388,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":5.286},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.0159,"slope_after":-0.174},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.174,"slope_after":0.00389}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.81k in 1950 → 7.71k in 2023 (×9.5). The trend broke around 1980: change sped up (+0.03k → +0.15k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.812,"last":7.707,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.0335,"slope_after":0.153}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 5.04 → 3.42. Over the same years: births 1.24k → 1.52k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":5.043,"end":3.42,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":1.237,"end":1.522}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.47 → 3.39; births 6.43k → 7.71k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.471,"end":3.388,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.432,"end":7.707}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.60); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.78). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.598,"r_changes":0.781,"effective_pairs_changes":67,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 10 revisions (2000–2022) and above in 9; median gap +26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.27,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":14.04},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.415,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":54.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.473,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":50.8},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.74,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":36.1},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.74,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":36.1},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.018,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":23.57},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.918,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":27.8},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.284,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":13.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.264,"actual":3.7292,"gap_pct":14.25},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.421,"actual":3.388,"gap_pct":-0.96}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":25.69,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (3.39) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.388,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.39, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.388,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.57 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.99 (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.49.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.388},"values":{"2050":2.57,"2100":1.994},"low_2100":1.494}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 10 revisions (2000–2022) and above in 10; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.781,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":13.83},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.632,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":66.64},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.752,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":62.43},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.404,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":42.83},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.982,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":29.03},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.515,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":18.47},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.301,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":22.5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.786,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":13.74},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.731,"actual":7.7186,"gap_pct":14.67},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7.656,"actual":7.707,"gap_pct":0.67}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":20.48,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (7.71k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":7.707,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (7.71k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":7.707,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 8.74k (+13% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.58k (+24% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4.85k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":7.707},"values":{"2050":8.742,"2100":9.577},"low_2100":4.85}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GUF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}