{"locations":[{"code":"GTM","name":"Guatemala","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GTM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.80 in 1950 → 2.31 in 2023 (−66%). Peak: 7.02 in 1957; the latest value is 67% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1989: +0.02 → −0.05 → −0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.804,"last":2.311,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":7.015},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0202,"slope_after":-0.0506},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0506,"slope_after":-0.102}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 157k in 1950 → 377k in 2023 (+140%). Peak: 422k in 2016; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1999 and 2017: +5.21k → +0.68k → −7.58k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":157.1,"last":377.2,"peak":{"year":2016,"value":422.3},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":5.21,"slope_after":0.681},{"year":2017,"slope_before":0.681,"slope_after":-7.58}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 60.2% in 2024 (+60 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 12.3% → 34.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":60.2214,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":12.3,"end":34.5093}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 31.8% in 1960 → 56.3% in 2025 (+24 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2008. The trend broke around 1993 and 2005: −0.02 → +1.3 → +0.37 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":31.8455,"last":56.2972,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0205,"slope_after":1.28},{"year":2005,"slope_before":1.28,"slope_after":0.374}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,595 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,987 PPP dollars in 2025 (+71%). The trend broke around 2019: change sped up (+143 → +281 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":7594.7322,"last":12986.5241,"breaks":[{"year":2019,"slope_before":143,"slope_after":281}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1998–2008: 4.80 → 3.57. Over the same years: births 400k → 400k; internet 0.5% → 8.3%; urban share 39.9% → 50.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,560 PPP dollars → 9,890 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":4.8,"end":3.571,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":400,"end":399.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":0.467,"end":8.3},{"id":"urban_population","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":39.9407,"end":50.1166},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":8559.9903,"end":9889.5767}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.15 → 2.31; births 411k → 377k; internet 19.7% → 56.7%; urban share 52.8% → 55.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,298 PPP dollars → 12,380 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.151,"end":2.311,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":411.1,"end":377.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19.7,"end":56.7267},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":52.781,"end":55.6082},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10297.8393,"end":12380.3715}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.871,"r_changes":0.247,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.898,"r_changes":0.36,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.944,"r_changes":-0.357,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.982,"r_changes":0.155,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −8.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.011,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-7.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.011,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-7.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.011,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-7.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.293,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-15.48},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.293,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-15.48},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.293,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-15.48},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.558,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-21.77},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.521,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-20.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.033,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-8.23},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.899,"actual":2.7833,"gap_pct":-3.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.318,"actual":2.311,"gap_pct":-0.3}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-8.23,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.31, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.311,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.31, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.311,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.88 (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.71 (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.21.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.311},"values":{"2050":1.877,"2100":1.705},"low_2100":1.205}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −7.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":441.567,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-7.4},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":438.303,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-6.71},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":432.903,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-5.54},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":464.759,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-12.02},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":475.917,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-14.08},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":475.971,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-14.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":514.669,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-20.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":504.245,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-18.91},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":443.893,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-7.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":423.077,"actual":408.9,"gap_pct":-3.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":373.431,"actual":377.2,"gap_pct":1.01}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-7.88,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (377k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":377.2,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 343k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 245k (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 89.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":377.2},"values":{"2050":343,"2100":245.4},"low_2100":89.05}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GTM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}