{"locations":[{"code":"GRL","name":"Greenland","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GRL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.64 in 1950 → 1.95 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 6.79 in 1962; the latest value is 71% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1964 and 1973: +0.08 → −0.5 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.641,"last":1.95,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":6.785},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0847,"slope_after":-0.501},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.501,"slope_after":-0.00598}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.96k in 1950 → 0.79k in 2023 (−18%). Peak: 1.62k in 1964; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1971: +0.05k → −0.1k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.964,"last":0.789,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":1.623},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0498,"slope_after":-0.105},{"year":1971,"slope_before":-0.105,"slope_after":-0.00442}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 69.5% in 2017 (+69 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2003. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 14.7% → 54.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":69.4825,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":14.7,"end":54.5343}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 58.3% in 1960 → 88.6% in 2025 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1978. The trend broke around 1966: change slowed down (+2.2 → +0.38 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":58.2504,"last":88.574,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1978,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":2.19,"slope_after":0.38}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 38,138 PPP dollars in 1990 → 71,038 PPP dollars in 2023 (+86%). Low: 34,578 PPP dollars in 1993; +105% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2009: −126 → +1,807 → +785 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"first":38137.5685,"last":71037.5372,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":34578.3465},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-126,"slope_after":1810},{"year":2009,"slope_before":1810,"slope_after":785}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 6.65 → 2.45. Over the same years: births 1.62k → 0.86k; urban share 67.1% → 74.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":6.654,"end":2.45,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":1.623,"end":0.857},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":67.0577,"end":74.1232},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.01 → 1.95; births 0.82k → 0.79k; internet 65.8% (2013); urban share 85.4% → 88.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 61,660 PPP dollars → 71,038 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.012,"end":1.95,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.816,"end":0.789},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":65.8},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":85.3726,"end":88.0631},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":61659.6415,"end":71037.5372}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.78); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.777,"r_changes":0.899,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 25 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":25,"r_levels":-0.805,"r_changes":-0.123,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.848,"r_changes":0.113,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.948,"r_changes":-0.385,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +0.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.945,"actual":1.95,"gap_pct":0.26}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":0.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.80 (−8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.73 (−11% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.23.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.95},"values":{"2050":1.796,"2100":1.729},"low_2100":1.229}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.781,"actual":0.789,"gap_pct":1.02}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":1.02,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (0.79k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.789,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.58k (−26% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.35k (−56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.12k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.789},"values":{"2050":0.58,"2100":0.351},"low_2100":0.117}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GRL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}