{"locations":[{"code":"GRD","name":"Grenada","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GRD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.18 in 1950 → 1.49 in 2023 (−71%). Peak: 6.79 in 1959; the latest value is 78% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2009, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1959 and 1973: +0.19 → −0.23 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.184,"last":1.487,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":6.792},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2009,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.189,"slope_after":-0.228},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.228,"slope_after":-0.0488}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.77k in 1950 → 1.37k in 2023 (−50%). Peak: 4.59k in 1960; the latest value is 70% lower. The trend broke around 1960 and 1974: +0.2k → −0.13k → −0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.767,"last":1.371,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":4.586},"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.199,"slope_after":-0.128},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.128,"slope_after":-0.0332}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 70.2% in 2024 (+70 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 24.1% → 51.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":70.1616,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":24.05,"end":51.6}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 30.4% in 1960 → 36.7% in 2025 (+6.3 pp). The trend broke around 1993 and 1999: +0.09 → +0.3 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":30.3945,"last":36.6708,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.0872,"slope_after":0.3},{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.3,"slope_after":0.0241}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,884 PPP dollars in 1990 → 18,241 PPP dollars in 2025 (+105%). Low: 8,548 PPP dollars in 1993; +113% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8883.919,"last":18240.9934,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":8548.0386}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1961–1971: 6.63 → 4.31. Over the same years: births 4.59k → 3.32k; urban share 30.6% → 32.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1961,"to":1971,"start":6.627,"end":4.307,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1961,"to":1971,"start":4.586,"end":3.32},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1961,"to":1971,"start":30.5903,"end":32.3183},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.91 → 1.49; births 1.75k → 1.37k; internet 35% → 69.4%; urban share 35.9% → 36.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,386 PPP dollars → 17,093 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.913,"end":1.487,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.748,"end":1.371},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35,"end":69.4131},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.8792,"end":36.4621},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13386.3189,"end":17093.1563}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.96). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.96,"r_changes":0.956,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.949,"r_changes":-0.004,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.94,"r_changes":-0.146,"effective_pairs_changes":39,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.96,"r_changes":-0.179,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in none; median gap −25%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.102,"actual":1.5499,"gap_pct":-26.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.102,"actual":1.5499,"gap_pct":-26.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.057,"actual":1.5499,"gap_pct":-24.65},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.072,"actual":1.5499,"gap_pct":-25.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.076,"actual":1.5499,"gap_pct":-25.34},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.073,"actual":1.5499,"gap_pct":-25.23},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.964,"actual":1.487,"gap_pct":-24.29}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-25.23,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (1.49, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.487,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection did not expect today's level (1.49, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.487,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.48 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.54 (+4% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.04.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.487},"values":{"2050":1.479,"2100":1.543},"low_2100":1.043}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in none; median gap −27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.026,"actual":1.4477,"gap_pct":-28.54},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.97,"actual":1.4477,"gap_pct":-26.51},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.932,"actual":1.4477,"gap_pct":-25.07},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.948,"actual":1.4477,"gap_pct":-25.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.978,"actual":1.4477,"gap_pct":-26.81},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.965,"actual":1.4477,"gap_pct":-26.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.923,"actual":1.371,"gap_pct":-28.71}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-26.51,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected today's level (1.37k, 2023) only around 2037: reality is 14 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.371,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2037,"years":14,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.37k, 2023) only around 2071: reality is 48 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.371,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2071,"years":48,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.96k (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.53k (−61% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.14k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.371},"values":{"2050":0.964,"2100":0.529},"low_2100":0.144}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GRD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}