{"locations":[{"code":"GNB","name":"Guinea-Bissau","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GNB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.91 in 1950 → 3.84 in 2023 (−35%). Peak: 6.74 in 1985; the latest value is 43% lower. The trend broke around 1973 and 1987: +0.01 → +0.06 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.914,"last":3.836,"peak":{"year":1985,"value":6.739},"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.00855,"slope_after":0.0572},{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.0572,"slope_after":-0.0806}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 25k in 1950 → 64.7k in 2023 (×2.6). Low: 22k in 1967; ×2.9 since then. The trend broke around 1973 and 1980: −0.17k → +2.48k → +0.62k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":25.01,"last":64.68,"trough":{"year":1967,"value":21.98},"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.167,"slope_after":2.48},{"year":1980,"slope_before":2.48,"slope_after":0.617}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 29.8% in 2024 (+30 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 3.3% → 17.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":29.7774,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":3.32,"end":17.9215}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 13.5% in 1960 → 46.7% in 2025 (+33 pp). The trend broke around 1980 and 1991: +0.16 → +1.5 → +0.38 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":13.481,"last":46.651,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.157,"slope_after":1.51},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.51,"slope_after":0.378}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,968 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,814 PPP dollars in 2025 (+43%). Low: 1,739 PPP dollars in 1998; +62% since then. The trend broke around 2014: change sped up (+8.5 → +55 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1968.0906,"last":2814.0836,"trough":{"year":1998,"value":1738.6495},"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":8.54,"slope_after":55.4}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 4.93 → 3.84. Over the same years: births 62.9k → 64.7k; internet 3.1% → 28.7%; urban share 41.3% → 45.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,193 PPP dollars → 2,661 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.93,"end":3.836,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":62.89,"end":64.68},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.1,"end":28.7124},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":41.2976,"end":45.5924},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2192.5928,"end":2660.8144}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.61); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.61,"r_changes":0.538,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.894,"r_changes":-0.289,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.682,"r_changes":0.177,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.853,"r_changes":0.025,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.032,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":7.28},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.77,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-9.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.853,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-26.1},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.32,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-31.56},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.32,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-31.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.01,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-13.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.592,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-5.8},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.65,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-6.98},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.56,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-5.14},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.513,"actual":4.3256,"gap_pct":-4.15},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.84,"actual":3.836,"gap_pct":-0.1}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.98,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.84) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.836,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.84, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.836,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.56 (−33% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.94 (−49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.44.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.836},"values":{"2050":2.562,"2100":1.942},"low_2100":1.442}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −9.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":58.981,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":6.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.929,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-10.58},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":98.108,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-36.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":105.293,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-40.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":106.392,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-41.23},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":72.552,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-13.81},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":63.29,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-1.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":67.67,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-7.6},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.168,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-9.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":67.22,"actual":62.529,"gap_pct":-6.98},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":64.777,"actual":64.68,"gap_pct":-0.15}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-9.6,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (64.7k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":64.68,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (64.7k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":64.68,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 71.1k (+10% vs 2023), 2100 — 60.9k (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 28k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":64.68},"values":{"2050":71.1,"2100":60.87},"low_2100":28.01}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GNB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}