{"locations":[{"code":"GMB","name":"Gambia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GMB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.35 in 1950 → 4.01 in 2023 (−37%). The trend broke around 1983 and 2012: 0 → −0.03 → −0.14 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.353,"last":4.006,"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.00407,"slope_after":-0.0328},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.0328,"slope_after":-0.144}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 15.2k in 1950 → 82.1k in 2023 (×5.4). The trend broke around 1973 and 2013: +0.48k → +1.3k → +0.23k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":15.24,"last":82.09,"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.484,"slope_after":1.3},{"year":2013,"slope_before":1.3,"slope_after":0.226}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 49.5% in 2024 (+49 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 22.5% → 48.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":49.4943,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":22.5156,"end":48.2254}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 9.1% in 1960 → 65% in 2025 (+56 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2003. The trend broke around 1966 and 2007: +0.2 → +1.1 → +0.6 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":9.0672,"last":64.9885,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.2,"slope_after":1.09},{"year":2007,"slope_before":1.09,"slope_after":0.598}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,654 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,167 PPP dollars in 2025 (+19%). Low: 2,439 PPP dollars in 1996; +30% since then. The trend broke around 2010 and 2016: +6.9 → −38 → +75 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2653.7829,"last":3166.6213,"trough":{"year":1996,"value":2439.0455},"breaks":[{"year":2010,"slope_before":6.92,"slope_after":-37.8},{"year":2016,"slope_before":-37.8,"slope_after":75}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 5.52 → 4.08. Over the same years: births 79.3k → 81.1k; internet 12.4% → 48.2%; urban share 57.3% → 63.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,575 PPP dollars → 2,863 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":5.519,"end":4.078,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":79.3,"end":81.13},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":12.4492,"end":48.2254},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":57.3207,"end":63.287},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":2574.9351,"end":2863.1805}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.76). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.815,"r_changes":0.757,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.971,"r_changes":-0.056,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.8,"r_changes":0.243,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.47); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.468,"r_changes":-0.097,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.65,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":24.92},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.55,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":28.44},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.175,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":43.61},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.259,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":39.91},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.721,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":22.54},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.132,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":10.35},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.299,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":6.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.527,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":-17.5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.527,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":-17.5},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.318,"actual":4.5597,"gap_pct":-14.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.504,"actual":4.006,"gap_pct":-11.06}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":10.35,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.01) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.006,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.01, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.006,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.38 (−41% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.82 (−55% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.32.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.006},"values":{"2050":2.378,"2100":1.821},"low_2100":1.321}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":56.265,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":39.61},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":54.04,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":45.36},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.117,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":53.67},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":53.097,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":47.94},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":63.749,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":23.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":67.824,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":15.82},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":72.803,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":7.9},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":87.411,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":-10.14},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":87.212,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":-9.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":82.598,"actual":78.551,"gap_pct":-4.9},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":89.518,"actual":82.09,"gap_pct":-8.3}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":15.82,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (82.1k, 2023) only around 2032: reality is 9 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":82.09,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2032,"years":9,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (82.1k) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":82.09,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 84.1k (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 66.9k (−19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 29.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":82.09},"values":{"2050":84.09,"2100":66.9},"low_2100":29.73}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GMB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}