{"locations":[{"code":"GLP","name":"Guadeloupe","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GLP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.59 in 1950 → 2.09 in 2023 (−63%). Peak: 5.86 in 1962; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2023. The trend broke around 1966 and 1980: 0 → −0.24 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.592,"last":2.089,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.856},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.00296,"slope_after":-0.239},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.239,"slope_after":-0.00622}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 8.61k in 1950 → 4.23k in 2023 (−51%). Peak: 11k in 1962; the latest value is 61% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1977: +0.16k → −0.3k → −0.06k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.609,"last":4.233,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":10.95},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.157,"slope_after":-0.304},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.304,"slope_after":-0.0619}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 5.22 → 2.58. Over the same years: births 10.5k → 6.57k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":5.218,"end":2.584,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":10.5,"end":6.573}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.22 → 2.09; births 5.32k → 4.23k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.216,"end":2.089,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.323,"end":4.233}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.88); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.91). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.877,"r_changes":0.914,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +8.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":12.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":12.02},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.865,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":14.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.859,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":14.49},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.957,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":8.76},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.957,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":8.76},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.993,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":6.79},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.027,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.105,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":1.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.92,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":10.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.018,"actual":2.089,"gap_pct":3.52}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":8.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.89 (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−15% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.089},"values":{"2050":1.889,"2100":1.779},"low_2100":1.279}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.171,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-31.92},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.003,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-18.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.695,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-14.28},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.659,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-13.73},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.879,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-16.96},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.16,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-20.75},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.996,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-18.58},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.073,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-19.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.801,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-15.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.856,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":0.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.589,"actual":4.233,"gap_pct":-7.76}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-16.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (4.23k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.233,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection did not expect today's level (4.23k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.233,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.21k (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.17k (−49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.76k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.233},"values":{"2050":3.214,"2100":2.165},"low_2100":0.757}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GLP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}