{"locations":[{"code":"GIN","name":"Guinea","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GIN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.97 in 1950 → 4.22 in 2023 (−29%). Peak: 6.57 in 1987; the latest value is 36% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2010: +0.02 → −0.05 → −0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.971,"last":4.218,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":6.571},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.0162,"slope_after":-0.0547},{"year":2010,"slope_before":-0.0547,"slope_after":-0.0936}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 137k in 1950 → 488k in 2023 (×3.6). The trend broke around 1981: change sped up (+3.18k → +7.15k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":136.5,"last":487.6,"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":3.18,"slope_after":7.15}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 33.3% in 2024 (+33 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 6.4% → 23.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":33.3047,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":6.4,"end":23.8905}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 9.7% in 1960 → 38.5% in 2025 (+29 pp). The trend broke around 1981: change slowed down (+0.78 → +0.28 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":9.7133,"last":38.5165,"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.782,"slope_after":0.277}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,106 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,217 PPP dollars in 2025 (+100%). The trend broke around 2013: change sped up (+31 → +121 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2105.7473,"last":4216.8597,"breaks":[{"year":2013,"slope_before":30.7,"slope_after":121}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2009–2019: 5.53 → 4.58. Over the same years: births 405k → 469k; internet 0.9% → 23.9%; urban share 33.5% → 36.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,537 PPP dollars → 3,557 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":5.528,"end":4.576,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":405,"end":468.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":0.94,"end":23.8905},{"id":"urban_population","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":33.5352,"end":36.1282},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":2537.3065,"end":3557.4623}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.32). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.745,"r_changes":0.315,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.43). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.899,"r_changes":-0.427,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.626,"r_changes":0.09,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.44).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.975,"r_changes":-0.437,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +5.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.56,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":33.14},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.51,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":5.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.156,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":14.04},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.506,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":5.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.434,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":6.89},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.5,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":5.33},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.634,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":2.28},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.55,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":4.17},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.734,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":0.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.738,"actual":4.7397,"gap_pct":0.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.218,"actual":4.218,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":5.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.22) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.218,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (4.22, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.218,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.70 (−36% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.99 (−53% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.49.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.218},"values":{"2050":2.701,"2100":1.991},"low_2100":1.491}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +5.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":336.64,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":36.55},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":421.85,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":8.97},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":386.416,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":18.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":434.986,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":5.68},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":415.847,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":10.54},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":434.154,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":5.88},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":425.494,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":8.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":458.514,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":0.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":475.054,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":-3.23},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":455.406,"actual":459.69,"gap_pct":0.94},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":473.39,"actual":487.6,"gap_pct":3}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":5.88,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (488k, 2023) only around 2034: reality is 11 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":487.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2034,"years":11,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (488k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":487.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 531k (+9% vs 2023), 2100 — 440k (−10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 202k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":487.6},"values":{"2050":531.2,"2100":440.2},"low_2100":201.7}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GIN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}