{"locations":[{"code":"GIB","name":"Gibraltar","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GIB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.68 in 1950 → 1.89 in 2023 (−30%). Peak: 4.26 in 1964; the latest value is 56% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2002. The trend broke around 1964 and 1973: +0.09 → −0.13 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.682,"last":1.888,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":4.26},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2002,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0949,"slope_after":-0.131},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.131,"slope_after":-0.016}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.52k in 1950 → 0.46k in 2023 (−11%). Peak: 0.64k in 1964; the latest value is 27% lower. The trend broke around 1981 and 2004: 0k → −0.01k → +0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.522,"last":0.464,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":0.637},"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.00164,"slope_after":-0.00928},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.00928,"slope_after":0.00625}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2016 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2007, above 90% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2004–2009: 32.9% → 65.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2016,"first":0,"last":94.4445,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2004,"to":2009,"start":32.8861,"end":65.07}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 4.26 → 2.60. Over the same years: births 0.64k → 0.52k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":4.26,"end":2.596,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":0.637,"end":0.517},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":100,"end":100}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.10 → 1.89; births 0.43k → 0.46k; internet 65% (2012); urban share 100% → 100%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.099,"end":1.888,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.431,"end":0.464},{"id":"internet_users","year":2012,"value":65.017},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.83); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.86). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.834,"r_changes":0.862,"effective_pairs_changes":37,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2016, 18 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.45); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2016,"years":18,"r_levels":-0.449,"r_changes":0.29,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +3.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.821,"actual":1.888,"gap_pct":3.68}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":3.68,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.81 (−4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.888},"values":{"2050":1.811,"2100":1.736},"low_2100":1.236}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +36%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.34,"actual":0.464,"gap_pct":36.47}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":36.47,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.5k (+8% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.44k (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.18k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.464},"values":{"2050":0.503,"2100":0.436},"low_2100":0.182}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GIB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}