{"locations":[{"code":"GHA","name":"Ghana","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GHA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.70 in 1950 → 3.40 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 6.95 in 1969; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1974: direction reversed (+0.01 → −0.08 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.7,"last":3.397,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":6.954},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.00779,"slope_after":-0.0839}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 244k in 1950 → 889k in 2023 (×3.6). The trend broke around 2013: change slowed down (+13.7k → +0.31k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":244.1,"last":888.9,"breaks":[{"year":2013,"slope_before":13.7,"slope_after":0.311}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 72.2% in 2024 (+72 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2012, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 22.1% → 72.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":72.1757,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":22.0732,"end":72.1757}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23.3% in 1960 → 58.9% in 2025 (+36 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2009. The trend broke around 1987: change sped up (+0.32 → +0.78 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.2864,"last":58.9247,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.325,"slope_after":0.783}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,786 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,358 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.6). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +63 → +273 → +146 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2785.6711,"last":7357.8333,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":63.2,"slope_after":273},{"year":2013,"slope_before":273,"slope_after":146}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 6.02 → 4.88. Over the same years: births 603k → 649k; internet 0% (1997); urban share 33.6% → 41.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,160 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":6.022,"end":4.884,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":603.4,"end":649.3},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.0275},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":33.6117,"end":41.6485},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":3160.445}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.11 → 3.40; births 882k → 889k; internet 15% → 70.7%; urban share 52.5% → 57.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,594 PPP dollars → 6,809 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.114,"end":3.397,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":882.4,"end":888.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":15,"end":70.6743},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":52.4986,"end":57.8075},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5593.7748,"end":6808.5378}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.53). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.955,"r_changes":0.527,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.821,"r_changes":-0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.99,"r_changes":-0.124,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.936,"r_changes":0.157,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +3.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.5,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":6.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.062,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":21.45},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.87,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":29.57},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.06,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":21.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.06,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":21.53},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.649,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":1.91},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.677,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":1.13},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.596,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":3.41},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.953,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":-5.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.893,"actual":3.7187,"gap_pct":-4.48},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.455,"actual":3.397,"gap_pct":-1.68}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":3.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.40) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.397,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.40, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.397,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.55 (−25% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.93 (−43% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.43.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.397},"values":{"2050":2.55,"2100":1.929},"low_2100":1.429}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":905.702,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":-3.3},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":698.074,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":25.46},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":664.259,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":31.85},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":698.77,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":25.34},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":714.135,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":22.64},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":807.895,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":8.41},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":810.886,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":8.01},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":813.029,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":7.72},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":889.623,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":-1.55},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":880.641,"actual":875.83,"gap_pct":-0.55},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":909.913,"actual":888.9,"gap_pct":-2.31}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":8.01,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (889k, 2023) only around 2033: reality is 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":888.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2033,"years":10,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (889k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":888.9,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 997k (+12% vs 2023), 2100 — 856k (−4% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 389k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":888.9},"values":{"2050":997.4,"2100":856.2},"low_2100":389.4}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GHA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}