{"locations":[{"code":"GGY","name":"Guernsey","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GGY/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.33 in 1950 → 1.36 in 2023 (−41%). Peak: 2.48 in 1964; the latest value is 45% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1971, below 1.5 since 2015. The trend broke around 1965 and 1977: +0.02 → −0.07 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.328,"last":1.362,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.475},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1971,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0156,"slope_after":-0.065},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.065,"slope_after":-0.0036}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.74k in 1950 → 0.52k in 2023 (−29%). The trend broke around 1984 and 1990: 0k → +0.01k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.736,"last":0.521,"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.00142,"slope_after":0.0115},{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.0115,"slope_after":-0.00673}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 2.48 → 1.73. Over the same years: births 0.74k → 0.69k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":2.475,"end":1.734,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":0.736,"end":0.691}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.54 → 1.36; births 0.58k → 0.52k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.542,"end":1.362,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.584,"end":0.521}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.59); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.588,"r_changes":0.823,"effective_pairs_changes":50,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.469,"actual":1.362,"gap_pct":-7.28}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-7.28,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.45 (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+12% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.362},"values":{"2050":1.448,"2100":1.528},"low_2100":1.028}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.626,"actual":0.521,"gap_pct":-16.77}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-16.77,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.49k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.42k (−19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.17k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.521},"values":{"2050":0.493,"2100":0.421},"low_2100":0.17}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GGY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}