{"locations":[{"code":"GEO","name":"Georgia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GEO/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.98 in 1950 → 1.81 in 2023 (−39%). Low: 1.55 in 2003; +17% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2018. The trend broke around 1989 and 1999: −0.02 → −0.07 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.983,"last":1.81,"trough":{"year":2003,"value":1.552},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0192,"slope_after":-0.0698},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.0698,"slope_after":0.0229}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 84.4k in 1950 → 43.8k in 2023 (−48%). Peak: 111k in 1985; the latest value is 60% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1997: +0.33k → −6.01k → −0.2k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":84.38,"last":43.77,"peak":{"year":1985,"value":110.8},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.327,"slope_after":-6.01},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-6.01,"slope_after":-0.198}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83.8% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 10% → 43.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":83.7986,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":10.01,"end":43.3}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 42.6% in 1960 → 61.2% in 2025 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1975. The trend broke around 1988 and 2002: +0.43 → −0.26 → +0.4 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":42.6363,"last":61.1781,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1975,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.431,"slope_after":-0.258},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.258,"slope_after":0.404}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,917 PPP dollars in 1990 → 25,136 PPP dollars in 2025 (+95%). Low: 3,532 PPP dollars in 1994; ×7.1 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2019: −1,193 → +621 → +1,271 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12917.0944,"last":25135.7822,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":3532.3201},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-1190,"slope_after":621},{"year":2019,"slope_before":621,"slope_after":1270}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1990–2000: 2.31 → 1.61. Over the same years: births 102k → 53.9k; internet 0% → 0.5%; urban share 55.1% → 52.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,917 PPP dollars → 5,706 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":2.306,"end":1.609,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":102.3,"end":53.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":0,"end":0.4847},{"id":"urban_population","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":55.1372,"end":52.4936},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":12917.0944,"end":5706.2724}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.99 → 1.81; births 57.4k → 43.8k; internet 43.3% → 81.9%; urban share 56.6% → 60.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,913 PPP dollars → 22,591 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.993,"end":1.81,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57.38,"end":43.77},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":43.3,"end":81.8843},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":56.6182,"end":60.7523},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13913.0018,"end":22590.5294}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.84). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.8,"r_changes":0.841,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.59); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.38).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":0.586,"r_changes":0.382,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.677,"r_changes":0.309,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.51); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.511,"r_changes":0.238,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":11.29},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.424,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":48.5},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.44,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":46.85},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.452,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":45.63},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.451,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":45.73},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.655,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":27.77},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.506,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":40.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.816,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":16.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.819,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":16.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.971,"actual":2.1146,"gap_pct":7.29},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.051,"actual":1.81,"gap_pct":-11.75}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":27.77,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (1.81, 2023) only around 2042: reality is 19 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.81,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2042,"years":19,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (1.81, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.81,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.71 (−6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.81},"values":{"2050":1.709,"2100":1.672},"low_2100":1.172}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.413,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":-15.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":45.828,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":21.17},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":45.863,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":21.08},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":42.923,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":29.37},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":42.888,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":29.47},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.114,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":20.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":42.98,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":29.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.683,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":7.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.296,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":8.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.779,"actual":55.529,"gap_pct":9.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":47.758,"actual":43.77,"gap_pct":-8.35}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":20.42,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (43.8k) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":43.77,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (43.8k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":43.77,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 40.2k (−8% vs 2023), 2100 — 25.1k (−43% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 9.07k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":43.77},"values":{"2050":40.17,"2100":25.13},"low_2100":9.074}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GEO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}