{"locations":[{"code":"GBR","name":"United Kingdom","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GBR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.22 in 1950 → 1.56 in 2023 (−30%). Peak: 2.93 in 1964; the latest value is 47% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1973. The trend broke around 1964 and 1976: +0.06 → −0.1 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.224,"last":1.56,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.931},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1973,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0633,"slope_after":-0.0964},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.0964,"slope_after":-0.00168}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 817k in 1950 → 650k in 2025 (−21%). Peak: 999k in 1964; the latest value is 35% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1975: +15.1k → −29.5k → +0.09k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":817.3,"last":649.525,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":999.4},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":15.1,"slope_after":-29.5},{"year":1975,"slope_before":-29.5,"slope_after":0.0893}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 95.5% in 2024 (+95 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2014. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 13.7% → 64.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0874,"last":95.4721,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":13.7,"end":64.82}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 78.6% in 1960 → 83.3% in 2025 (+4.8 pp). The trend broke around 1967 and 1994: −0.2 → +0.06 → +0.15 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":78.5503,"last":83.3236,"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":-0.202,"slope_after":0.0568},{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.0568,"slope_after":0.153}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 33,531 PPP dollars in 1990 → 53,993 PPP dollars in 2025 (+61%). The trend broke around 2005 and 2011: +1,137 → −100 → +425 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":33530.9578,"last":53993.1173,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":1140,"slope_after":-99.5},{"year":2011,"slope_before":-99.5,"slope_after":425}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 2.87 → 1.81. Over the same years: births 989k → 697k; urban share 77.6% → 77.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":2.867,"end":1.807,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":988.6,"end":696.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":77.595,"end":77.5494},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.83 → 1.56; births 785k → 688k; internet 89.8% → 95.4%; urban share 81.5% → 83.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 48,601 PPP dollars → 53,423 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.83,"end":1.56,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":785.4,"end":688.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":89.8441,"end":95.4472},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":81.4574,"end":83.1602},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":48600.5101,"end":53423.4226}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.95). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.938,"r_changes":0.951,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.012,"r_changes":0.185,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.52); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.23).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.524,"r_changes":-0.234,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.15); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.15,"r_changes":0.182,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.895,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-10.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.651,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":3.13},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.64,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":3.82},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.767,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-3.64},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-7.97},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-7.97},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.898,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-10.3},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.888,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-9.82},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.908,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-10.77},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.871,"actual":1.7026,"gap_pct":-9},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.57,"actual":1.56,"gap_pct":-0.64}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-7.97,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.55 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.60 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.10.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.56},"values":{"2050":1.549,"2100":1.595},"low_2100":1.095}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":670.308,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":1.39},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":634.265,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":7.16},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":700.371,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-2.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":753.235,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-9.77},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":752.58,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-9.69},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":782.138,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-13.1},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":806.125,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-15.69},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":776.216,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-12.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":811.22,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-16.22},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":796.559,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-14.68},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":772.682,"actual":679.6537,"gap_pct":-12.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":676.198,"actual":649.525,"gap_pct":-3.94}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-10.9,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (650k, 2025) only around 2027: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":649.525,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":2,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 650k, 5% below the UN 2024 medium variant (680k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":680.1,"actual_births_k":649.525,"gap_pct":-4.5,"un_lower95_births_k":533.7,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (UK births); ONS Vital statistics in the UK reference tables 2021 (UK TFR 2015-2021)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=UK"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 727k (+12% vs 2025), 2100 — 636k (−2% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 269k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":649.525},"values":{"2050":727,"2100":635.5},"low_2100":268.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GBR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}