{"locations":[{"code":"GAB","name":"Gabon","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/GAB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.95 in 1950 → 3.65 in 2023 (−8%). Peak: 5.76 in 1983; the latest value is 37% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 2001: +0.06 → −0.09 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.948,"last":3.647,"peak":{"year":1983,"value":5.759},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.0613,"slope_after":-0.0913},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0913,"slope_after":-0.0296}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 14.2k in 1950 → 68.8k in 2023 (×4.8). The trend broke around 1965 and 2001: +0.28k → +0.73k → +1.3k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":14.19,"last":68.75,"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.276,"slope_after":0.727},{"year":2001,"slope_before":0.727,"slope_after":1.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 68.7% in 2024 (+69 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 13% → 45.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":68.7209,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":13,"end":45.7845}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 12.6% in 1960 → 92.1% in 2025 (+79 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1978, above 75% since 1996. The trend broke around 1982 and 2001: +2.3 → +1.2 → +0.46 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":12.6,"last":92.0877,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1978,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1996,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":2.25,"slope_after":1.17},{"year":2001,"slope_before":1.17,"slope_after":0.462}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 23,885 PPP dollars in 1990 → 18,986 PPP dollars in 2025 (−21%). Peak: 25,586 PPP dollars in 1998; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 1997 and 2006: +129 → −600 → −4.7 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":23884.8107,"last":18986.4739,"peak":{"year":1998,"value":25585.5078},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":129,"slope_after":-600},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-600,"slope_after":-4.69}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1989–1999: 5.55 → 4.50. Over the same years: births 36.4k → 41.6k; internet 0% → 0.2%; urban share 67.8% → 78.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 23,885 PPP dollars → 22,714 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":5.55,"end":4.502,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":36.38,"end":41.61},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":0,"end":0.249},{"id":"urban_population","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":67.8304,"end":78.6946},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":23884.8107,"end":22713.7144}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.02 → 3.65; births 61.1k → 68.8k; internet 30.5% → 68.2%; urban share 87.1% → 91.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 19,836 PPP dollars → 18,701 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.019,"end":3.647,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":61.06,"end":68.75},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":30.538,"end":68.1979},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":87.1482,"end":91.6376},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19836.4555,"end":18701.4228}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.42); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.49).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.418,"r_changes":0.487,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.776,"r_changes":0.056,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.49); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.491,"r_changes":0.183,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.843,"r_changes":-0.215,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +7.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.64,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":7.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.22,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":-7.57},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.831,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":37.77},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.889,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":35.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.612,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":49.33},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.785,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":40.05},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.056,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":27.63},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.796,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":2.75},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.678,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":6.05},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.68,"actual":3.9004,"gap_pct":5.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.39,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":7.58}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":7.58,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.65) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.647,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.65, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.647,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.62 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.97 (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.47.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.647},"values":{"2050":2.617,"2100":1.97},"low_2100":1.47}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.81,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":28.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":60.151,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":10.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":42.292,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":57.66},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.835,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":59.39},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":34.744,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":91.92},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.12,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":62.16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":45.285,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":47.24},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.093,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":21.03},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.729,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":28.9},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":58.233,"actual":66.679,"gap_pct":14.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":63.76,"actual":68.75,"gap_pct":7.83}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":28.9,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection did not expect today's level (68.8k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":68.75,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection did not expect today's level (68.8k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":68.75,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 86.4k (+26% vs 2023), 2100 — 94.1k (+37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 47.2k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":68.75},"values":{"2050":86.36,"2100":94.11},"low_2100":47.21}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=GAB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}