{"locations":[{"code":"FSM","name":"Micronesia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/FSM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.63 in 1950 → 2.75 in 2023 (−59%). Peak: 6.97 in 1973; the latest value is 61% lower. The trend broke around 1975 and 2004: +0.01 → −0.12 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.633,"last":2.748,"peak":{"year":1973,"value":6.971},"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.0127,"slope_after":-0.115},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.115,"slope_after":-0.0459}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.46k in 1950 → 2.51k in 2023 (+72%). Peak: 3.6k in 2000; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1985 and 1997: +0.06k → 0k → −0.05k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.464,"last":2.512,"peak":{"year":2000,"value":3.602},"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.0623,"slope_after":0.0039},{"year":1997,"slope_before":0.0039,"slope_after":-0.0499}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 39.5% in 2024 (+40 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2004. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 15.4% → 29.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":39.5236,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":15.35,"end":29.65}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23% in 1960 → 22.5% in 2025 (−0.5 pp). Peak: 26.5% in 1980; the latest value is 15% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 2002: +0.14 → −0.31 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.0081,"last":22.4809,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":26.47},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.14,"slope_after":-0.305},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.305,"slope_after":0.00518}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,120 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,935 PPP dollars in 2025 (+26%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3119.8117,"last":3934.6427}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1980–1990: 6.42 → 5.05. Over the same years: births 3.25k → 3.54k; internet 0% (1990); urban share 26.5% → 26%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,120 PPP dollars (1990).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1980,"to":1990,"start":6.423,"end":5.049,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1980,"to":1990,"start":3.252,"end":3.54},{"id":"internet_users","year":1990,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1980,"to":1990,"start":26.47,"end":26.0147},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1990,"value":3119.8117}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.13 → 2.75; births 2.6k → 2.51k; internet 27.8% → 39.4%; urban share 22.3% → 22.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,697 PPP dollars → 3,841 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.133,"end":2.748,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.598,"end":2.512},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":27.8,"end":39.3989},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.2986,"end":22.4334},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3696.7455,"end":3841.2712}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.333,"r_changes":0.181,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.934,"r_changes":-0.07,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.738,"r_changes":0.279,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.876,"r_changes":-0.082,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.744,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":7.24},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.435,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":-14.33},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.915,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":0.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.862,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":2.82},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.042,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":-3.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.078,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":-4.4},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.077,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":-4.36},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.076,"actual":2.9427,"gap_pct":-4.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.641,"actual":2.748,"gap_pct":4.05}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.75) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.748,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.75, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.748,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.15 (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.80 (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.30.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.748},"values":{"2050":2.148,"2100":1.797},"low_2100":1.297}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 3; median gap −1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.626,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":-3.4},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.848,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":-10.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.649,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":-4.24},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.566,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":-1.15},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.726,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":-6.95},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.568,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":-1.22},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.518,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":0.74},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.53,"actual":2.5366,"gap_pct":0.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.392,"actual":2.512,"gap_pct":5.02}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-1.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected today's level (2.51k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.512,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (2.51k, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.512,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.07k (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.41k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.54k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.512},"values":{"2050":2.072,"2100":1.408},"low_2100":0.535}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=FSM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}