{"locations":[{"code":"FRA","name":"France","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/FRA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.97 in 1950 → 1.56 in 2025 (−47%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1975. The trend broke around 1966 and 1977: 0 → −0.09 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.965,"last":1.56,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.00308,"slope_after":-0.0871},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.0871,"slope_after":-0.000355}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 866k in 1950 → 644k in 2025 (−26%). The trend broke around 1997 and 2010: −2.51k → +5.04k → −11k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":866.4,"last":643.905,"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-2.51,"slope_after":5.04},{"year":2010,"slope_before":5.04,"slope_after":-11}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 88.7% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 30.2% → 66.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0528,"last":88.6538,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":30.18,"end":66.09}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 61.7% in 1960 → 78.8% in 2025 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1995. The trend broke around 1969: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.15 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":61.6814,"last":78.845,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1995,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":1.11,"slope_after":0.152}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 38,656 PPP dollars in 1990 → 55,125 PPP dollars in 2025 (+43%). The trend broke around 2004: change slowed down (+738 → +301 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":38655.8857,"last":55124.5393,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":738,"slope_after":301}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 2.78 → 1.83. Over the same years: births 858k → 721k; urban share 68.4% → 73.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.781,"end":1.832,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":857.5,"end":720.5},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":68.4229,"end":73.082},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.93 → 1.56; births 760k → 644k; internet 78% → 88.7%; urban share 77.8% → 78.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 50,683 PPP dollars → 55,125 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.927,"end":1.56,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":760.2,"end":643.905},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":78.006,"end":88.6538},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":77.7611,"end":78.845},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":50682.8954,"end":55124.5393}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.84); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.836,"r_changes":0.902,"effective_pairs_changes":49,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.42); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.419,"r_changes":0.203,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.824,"r_changes":0.01,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.22); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.217,"r_changes":0.275,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.96,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-13.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.861,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-8.86},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.876,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-9.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-8.32},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-8.32},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-8.32},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.016,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-15.87},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.984,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-14.51},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.981,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-14.38},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.966,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-13.73},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.848,"actual":1.6961,"gap_pct":-8.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.785,"actual":1.56,"gap_pct":-12.61}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-11.1,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.65 (+6% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.65 (+6% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.15.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.56},"values":{"2050":1.647,"2100":1.646},"low_2100":1.146}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −5.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":698.879,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-3.85},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":681.065,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-1.33},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":699.731,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-3.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":682.582,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-1.55},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":719.229,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-6.57},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":696.175,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-3.47},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":792.675,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-15.23},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":800.609,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-16.07},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":767.967,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-12.5},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":755.116,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-11.01},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":716.645,"actual":671.9877,"gap_pct":-6.23},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":669.941,"actual":643.905,"gap_pct":-3.89}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-5.1,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 644k, 2% above the UN 2024 medium variant (635k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":634.5,"actual_births_k":643.905,"gap_pct":1.5,"un_lower95_births_k":565.1,"below_lower95":false,"source":"INSEE, Les naissances en 2025 (Insee Resultats, 6 July 2026); TFR: Insee Premiere No. 2087 (13 Jan 2026)","source_url":"https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/9000195"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 669k (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 628k (−2% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 273k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":643.905},"values":{"2050":669.1,"2100":628.3},"low_2100":272.7}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=FRA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}