{"locations":[{"code":"FLK","name":"Falkland Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/FLK/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.56 in 1950 → 1.69 in 2023 (−34%). Peak: 3.23 in 1960; the latest value is 48% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1982. The trend broke around 1968 and 1991: +0.02 → −0.07 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.557,"last":1.685,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":3.227},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1982,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.0195,"slope_after":-0.0732},{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0732,"slope_after":0.00895}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.04k in 1950 → 0.04k in 2023 (0%). Peak: 0.05k in 1960; the latest value is 25% lower. The trend broke around 1969 and 1982: 0k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.039,"last":0.039,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":0.052},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.000533,"slope_after":-0.00176},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.00176,"slope_after":0.000408}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1973–1983: 2.87 → 1.96. Over the same years: births 0.05k → 0.03k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":2.873,"end":1.955,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":0.046,"end":0.027}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.69 → 1.69; births 0.04k → 0.04k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.686,"end":1.685,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.04,"end":0.039}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.62); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.67). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.618,"r_changes":0.673,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +6.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.585,"actual":1.685,"gap_pct":6.31}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":6.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.67 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.685},"values":{"2050":1.674,"2100":1.665},"low_2100":1.165}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −4.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.041,"actual":0.039,"gap_pct":-4.88}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-4.88,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.04k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.039,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.03k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.02k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.039},"values":{"2050":0.028,"2100":0.018},"low_2100":0.006}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=FLK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}