{"locations":[{"code":"FJI","name":"Fiji","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/FJI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.52 in 1950 → 2.28 in 2023 (−65%). The trend broke around 1961 and 1973: −0.01 → −0.19 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.518,"last":2.281,"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":-0.0122,"slope_after":-0.19},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.19,"slope_after":-0.0393}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 13k in 1950 → 16.6k in 2023 (+28%). Peak: 23.6k in 1984; the latest value is 29% lower. The trend broke around 1985 and 2012: +0.25k → −0.1k → −0.33k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":13.04,"last":16.63,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":23.56},"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.245,"slope_after":-0.103},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.103,"slope_after":-0.33}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 74.7% in 2024 (+75 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 42.5% → 68.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":74.7052,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":42.5,"end":68.6256}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 25.6% in 1960 → 59.5% in 2025 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2006. The trend broke around 1967 and 1984: +1.2 → +0.25 → +0.52 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":25.6476,"last":59.5445,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":1.19,"slope_after":0.245},{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.245,"slope_after":0.517}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,821 PPP dollars in 1990 → 13,961 PPP dollars in 2025 (+79%). Low: 7,548 PPP dollars in 1991; +85% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":7820.7172,"last":13961.1184,"trough":{"year":1991,"value":7547.6782}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 6.09 → 4.16. Over the same years: births 18.9k → 18k; urban share 30.3% → 36.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":6.088,"end":4.158,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":18.93,"end":17.95},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":30.3015,"end":36.3386},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.60 → 2.28; births 19.7k → 16.6k; internet 35.2% → 74.1%; urban share 53.6% → 58.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,604 PPP dollars → 13,195 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.604,"end":2.281,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19.7,"end":16.63},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.2,"end":74.1161},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":53.5553,"end":58.6069},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10604.1559,"end":13194.8048}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.64). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.554,"r_changes":0.643,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.942,"r_changes":-0.271,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.932,"r_changes":-0.003,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.908,"r_changes":0.048,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":16.62},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.23,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":9.82},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.338,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":4.75},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.387,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":2.6},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.421,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":1.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.421,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":1.16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.47,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":-0.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.473,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":-0.97},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.48,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":-1.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.482,"actual":2.449,"gap_pct":-1.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.437,"actual":2.281,"gap_pct":-6.4}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":1.16,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.28) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.281,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.28, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.281,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.93 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.76 (−23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.26.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.281},"values":{"2050":1.929,"2100":1.762},"low_2100":1.262}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +7.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.106,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":6.54},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.356,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":11.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.083,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":6.68},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.84,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":8.22},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.222,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":12.34},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.222,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":12.34},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.016,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":7.1},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.912,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":7.76},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.948,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":7.53},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.147,"actual":18.224,"gap_pct":6.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":17.676,"actual":16.63,"gap_pct":-5.92}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":7.53,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (16.6k) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":16.63,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection expected this level (16.6k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":16.63,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 14k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.14k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.27k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":16.63},"values":{"2050":13.97,"2100":9.135},"low_2100":3.269}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=FJI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}