{"locations":[{"code":"ETH","name":"Ethiopia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ETH/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.43 in 1950 → 4.00 in 2024 (−38%). Peak: 7.36 in 1984; the latest value is 46% lower. The trend broke around 1985 and 1998: +0.03 → −0.04 → −0.12 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":6.433,"last":4,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":7.356},"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.0316,"slope_after":-0.0378},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.0378,"slope_after":-0.123}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 799k in 1950 → 4.11M in 2023 (×5.1). The trend broke around 1982 and 1995: +34.4k → +77.2k → +40k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":799.1,"last":4106,"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":34.4,"slope_after":77.2},{"year":1995,"slope_before":77.2,"slope_after":40}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 21.9% in 2024 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 1.1% → 15.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":21.9413,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":1.1,"end":15.3669}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 7.1% in 1960 → 24.1% in 2025 (+17 pp). The trend broke around 2009: change sped up (+0.22 → +0.44 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":7.1088,"last":24.1097,"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":0.224,"slope_after":0.438}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 874 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,095 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.5). Low: 681 PPP dollars in 1992; ×4.5 since then. The trend broke around 2003: change sped up (+3.3 → +77 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":874.3469,"last":3094.8681,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":680.8348},"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":3.33,"slope_after":77}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2004–2014: 6.30 → 4.61. Over the same years: births 3.25M → 3.38M; internet 0.2% → 7.7%; urban share 15.8% → 19%; GDP per person (PPP) 877 PPP dollars → 1,821 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":6.301,"end":4.605,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":3249,"end":3378},{"id":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":0.1553,"end":7.7},{"id":"urban_population","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":15.7586,"end":19.0263},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":877.1145,"end":1821.3916}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 4.61 → 4.00; births 3.38M → 4.11M; internet 7.7% → 21.9%; urban share 19% → 23.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,821 PPP dollars → 2,892 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":4.605,"end":4,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2023,"start":3378,"end":4106},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":7.7,"end":21.9413},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":19.0263,"end":23.6223},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1821.3916,"end":2892.2222}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.64); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.69). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.642,"r_changes":0.689,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.871,"r_changes":0.008,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.842,"r_changes":0.198,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.953,"r_changes":-0.27,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +3.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.41,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-0.26},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.59,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-21.31},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.805,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-8.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.417,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-0.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.278,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":2.82},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.214,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":4.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.245,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":35.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.005,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":9.83},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.99,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":10.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.025,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":9.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":3.876,"actual":4,"gap_pct":3.2}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":3.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.00) already around 2021: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (4.00) already around 2022: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.55 (−36% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.88 (−53% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.38.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":4},"values":{"2050":2.554,"2100":1.879},"low_2100":1.379}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +6.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3498.686,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":6.08},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3596.683,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":3.19},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3619.219,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":2.54},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3477.903,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":6.71},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3536.375,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":4.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3346.383,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":10.9},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2627.199,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":41.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3233.402,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":14.78},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3242.779,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":14.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3295.322,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":12.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3964.806,"actual":4106,"gap_pct":3.56}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":6.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (4.11M, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4106,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.11M, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4106,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 4.79M (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 4.63M (+13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.23M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4106},"values":{"2050":4791,"2100":4633},"low_2100":2232}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ETH&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}