{"locations":[{"code":"ESH","name":"Western Sahara","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ESH/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.01 in 1950 → 2.16 in 2023 (−64%). Peak: 6.53 in 1966; the latest value is 67% lower. The trend broke around 1974 and 2006: +0.01 → −0.12 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.012,"last":2.164,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":6.526},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.0145,"slope_after":-0.116},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.116,"slope_after":-0.0389}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.56k in 1950 → 8.99k in 2023 (×16). The trend broke around 1976 and 1982: +0.11k → +0.42k → +0.08k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.564,"last":8.987,"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.109,"slope_after":0.417},{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.417,"slope_after":0.0813}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 5.36 → 4.05. Over the same years: births 7.02k → 5.87k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":5.363,"end":4.046,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":7.017,"end":5.865}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.50 → 2.16; births 9.1k → 8.99k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.499,"end":2.164,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":9.099,"end":8.987}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.896,"r_changes":-0.101,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":11.09},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.67,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":-12.63},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.787,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":-16.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.837,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":-17.77},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":-2.14},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":-2.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.265,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":3},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.221,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":5.04},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.064,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":13.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.415,"actual":2.3329,"gap_pct":-3.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.246,"actual":2.164,"gap_pct":-3.65}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-2.14,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (2.16, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.164,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.16, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.164,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.85 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−21% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.164},"values":{"2050":1.85,"2100":1.717},"low_2100":1.217}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.668,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":21.57},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":8.432,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":10.55},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.346,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-0.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.762,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-32.26},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.559,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-31.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.559,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-31.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.884,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-27.65},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.1,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-22.96},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.348,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-9.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.405,"actual":9.3219,"gap_pct":-18.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":9.322,"actual":8.987,"gap_pct":-3.59}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-18.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (8.99k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":8.987,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.63k (+7% vs 2023), 2100 — 8.22k (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":8.987},"values":{"2050":9.629,"2100":8.224},"low_2100":3.504}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ESH&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}