{"locations":[{"code":"EGY","name":"Egypt","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/EGY/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.06 in 1950 → 2.75 in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1985 and 1996: −0.06 → −0.14 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.058,"last":2.75,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.0604,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.0265}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.16M in 1950 → 1.97M in 2024 (+70%). Peak: 2.81M in 2015; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 2006 and 2015: +18.9k → +68.9k → −74.9k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":1155,"last":1968.396,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":2807},"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":18.9,"slope_after":68.9},{"year":2015,"slope_before":68.9,"slope_after":-74.9}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 74.6% in 2024 (+75 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 37.8% → 71.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":74.6484,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":37.8194,"end":71.9142}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 37.8% in 1960 → 42.9% in 2025 (+5.1 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 1975: +0.58 → +0.28 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":37.8263,"last":42.9043,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.583,"slope_after":0.28},{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.28,"slope_after":-0.0306}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,007 PPP dollars in 1990 → 17,265 PPP dollars in 2025 (+116%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8006.6214,"last":17265.1489}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 5.12 → 3.76. Over the same years: births 1.94M → 1.88M; internet 0% (1995); urban share 44% → 42.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,424 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":5.116,"end":3.764,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":1935,"end":1876},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.0313},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":43.9622,"end":42.7019},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":8423.5782}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.49 → 2.75; births 2.73M → 2.41M; internet 29.4% → 74%; urban share 42.8% → 42.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,058 PPP dollars → 16,691 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.49,"end":2.75,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2726,"end":2406},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.4,"end":74.0119},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":42.7514,"end":42.7098},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13058.0748,"end":16691.3874}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.923,"r_changes":0.818,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.789,"r_changes":-0.065,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.34,"r_changes":0.25,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.864,"r_changes":-0.108,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +25%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":49.76},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":49.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.504,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":25.6},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.568,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":22.47},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.507,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":25.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.507,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":25.45},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.46,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":27.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.623,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":19.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.162,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":-0.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.155,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":-0.32},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.845,"actual":2.75,"gap_pct":-3.34}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":25.45,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.75) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.75,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.75, 2023) only around 2036: reality is 13 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.75,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2036,"years":13,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.21 (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.75},"values":{"2050":2.212,"2100":1.839},"low_2100":1.339}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +35%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1587.924,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":62.63},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1581.98,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":63.24},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1919.149,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":34.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1907.303,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":35.4},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1837.627,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":40.53},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1989.89,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":29.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1851.482,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":39.48},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1881.519,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":37.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2412.571,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":7.04},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2461.24,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":4.92},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":2448.253,"actual":1968.396,"gap_pct":-19.6}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":35.4,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 1.97M, 19% below the UN 2024 medium variant (2.44M) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":2437,"actual_births_k":1968.396,"gap_pct":-19.2,"un_lower95_births_k":2028,"below_lower95":true,"source":"UN VSR table 3 (16 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/vitstats/seratab3.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.58M (+31% vs 2024), 2100 — 2.2M (+12% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 943k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1968.396},"values":{"2050":2578,"2100":2198},"low_2100":943.1}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=EGY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}