{"locations":[{"code":"ECU","name":"Ecuador","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ECU/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.73 in 1950 → 1.82 in 2023 (−73%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2019. The trend broke around 1966 and 1987: −0.01 → −0.13 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.725,"last":1.823,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":-0.0112,"slope_after":-0.132},{"year":1987,"slope_before":-0.132,"slope_after":-0.0568}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 158k in 1950 → 270k in 2023 (+71%). Peak: 334k in 2011; the latest value is 19% lower. The trend broke around 1982 and 2009: +4.5k → +1.15k → −4.45k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":158.4,"last":270.3,"peak":{"year":2011,"value":333.8},"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":4.5,"slope_after":1.15},{"year":2009,"slope_before":1.15,"slope_after":-4.45}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 77.2% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 10.8% → 35.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":77.1727,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":10.8,"end":35.1351}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34.7% in 1960 → 63.4% in 2025 (+29 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1984. The trend broke around 1972 and 1998: +0.46 → +0.8 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.695,"last":63.3918,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1984,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.461,"slope_after":0.795},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.795,"slope_after":0.0994}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 9,105 PPP dollars in 1990 → 14,319 PPP dollars in 2025 (+57%). The trend broke around 2003 and 2014: +32 → +364 → +30 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":9104.816,"last":14319.2407,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":31.8,"slope_after":364},{"year":2014,"slope_before":364,"slope_after":29.6}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 6.14 → 4.73. Over the same years: births 254k → 287k; urban share 39.3% → 47%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":6.138,"end":4.73,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":253.8,"end":287.4},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":39.3286,"end":46.9599},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.36 → 1.82; births 311k → 270k; internet 40.3% → 72.7%; urban share 62.9% → 63.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,689 PPP dollars → 14,321 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.362,"end":1.823,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":310.7,"end":270.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":40.2791,"end":72.6943},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":62.8837,"end":63.1308},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13689.152,"end":14321.1648}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.843,"r_changes":0.243,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.946,"r_changes":-0.12,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.42). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.989,"r_changes":-0.417,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.936,"r_changes":0.057,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −5.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.187,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-4.13},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.186,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-4.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.187,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-4.13},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.224,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-5.72},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.224,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-5.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.225,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-5.77},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.239,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-6.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.429,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-13.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.443,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-14.18},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.444,"actual":2.0967,"gap_pct":-14.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.995,"actual":1.823,"gap_pct":-8.62}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-5.77,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.82, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.823,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.82, 2023) only around 2044: reality is 21 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.823,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2044,"years":21,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.68 (−8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.65 (−9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.15.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.823},"values":{"2050":1.682,"2100":1.65},"low_2100":1.15}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +0.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":292.202,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":0.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":292.133,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":0.81},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":276.786,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":6.4},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":281.637,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":4.57},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":269.787,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":9.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":269.888,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":9.12},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":289.055,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":1.88},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":326.747,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":-9.87},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":330.351,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":-10.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":330.078,"actual":294.5,"gap_pct":-10.78},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":298.524,"actual":270.3,"gap_pct":-9.45}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":0.81,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (270k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":270.3,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (270k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":270.3,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 228k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 156k (−42% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 54.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":270.3},"values":{"2050":227.6,"2100":156.3},"low_2100":54.07}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ECU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}